How the NHL Draft Lottery Could Speed Up or Slow Down the Anaheim Ducks Rebuild
The National Hockey League Draft Lottery is set for this Friday, and how the lottery balls bounce will have a significant impact on the Anaheim Ducks’ foreseeable future. Anaheim has missed the postseason two years in a row after a stellar run of six consecutive playoff appearances.
The Ducks can expect to pick no worse than eight overall in the upcoming Draft, one slot higher than where they snagged Trevor Zegras in 2019. With the possibility of picking as high as first overall, Anaheim’s rebuild could potentially be set into high gear, with the light at the end of the tunnel shining much brighter.
The top of this year’s draft class is filled with intriguing talents, all with the ability to fill different voids in the Anaheim lineup. Despite their abilities, some prospects are much further away from being ready for the professional ranks than others. As such, it’s worth reviewing how each possible pick affects the immediate timeline of the Ducks’ rebuild.
Keep in mind, these tiers are decided by how quickly each player would vault the Ducks’ destiny forward. A player who may take one to two more years of development is not necessarily the inferior pick, but he would end up lower for the purposes of this ranking, since a slightly longer development curve would stretch the rebuild further out.
Tier 1: Alexis Lafreniere
Lafreniere is the consensus first overall pick in this draft, and he is the only true lock to make the immediate leap to the NHL. As such, the Ducks landing the first overall pick switches their rebuild to turbo speed.
The Saint Eustache, Quebec native projects as a dominant first line winger, with the puckhandling, shooting, and passing abilities to elevate a line from the flank. He would immediately slot into the Ducks’ top-six, while taking immense pressure off of the likes of Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Sam Steel, etc. Although he has not been tabbed as a generational talent a la Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid, Lafreniere will be an elite talent in the NHL and would instantly re-invigorate Anaheim’s forward crop.
Tier 2: Quinton Byfield, Marco Rossi
Byfield dominated the Ontario Hockey League, posting record scoring rates for a player of his relatively younger age. His ability to effectively leverage his imposing frame has given him an early leg up on his competition, and it should make the transition to the NHL far more seamless than some.
The 17-year old would become the heir apparent to Ryan Getzlaf’s throne as Anaheim’s number one center. Byfield would have the shadowing opportunity of a lifetime under Getzlaf’s tutelage, and could eventually form one of the most dynamic one-two punches in the league down the middle with Trevor Zegras.
Rossi’s name might be a surprise addition to this tier next to Byfield. To be clear, Byfield and Rossi have much different profiles and degrees of upside. However, like Byfield, the Austrian native should be a year away at most from competing in the NHL.
Unlike Byfield, Rossi’s later 2001 birth year puts him on the older side of the draft class. After eviscerating the OHL to the tune of 120 points in 56 games, the five-foot nine center has nothing left to prove at the junior level. Although there are questions about his size, Rossi has the impressive strength, elite skill, and hockey sense to bolster Anaheim’s offensive core.
Tier 3: Tim Stutzle, Jamie Drysdale
Stutzle took the hockey world by storm this past season. Eschewing American collegiate hockey to remain in his native Germany, he dominated the DEL as a then 17-year old rookie with 34 points in 41 games. On Monday, Stutzle’s rise through the ranks was cemented, as the venerable Bob McKenzie turned heads by having him second on his draft board, a slot which Byfield had occupied all season long.
The native of Viersen, Germany has caught the attention of the scouting community thanks to his impeccable skill set, with some of the most eye-popping combination of edgework and puckhandling ability seen in a long time. Add the fact that he did it against men in a pro league, and you have the makings of a future star.
Even so, Stutzle is not necessarily a lock to jump to the NHL right away. Although his game is certainly exciting, there are concerns that he may need some more polish and adjustment to the North American game. Make no mistake, he would add the type of excitement and playmaking that Anaheim’s roster has sorely lacked in recent years, but he may be a bit further away than the hype around him would suggest.
Drysdale, on the other hand, has seen his star dim a bit as fellow draft-eligible defenseman Jake Sanderson has climbed up the rankings. Although the old-school scouts love Sanderson’s defensive acumen, and rightfully so, Drysdale is by far the most talented blueliner in this draft. His skating ability is mesmerizing, and although he may not possess the highest offensive upside, he will bolster any team’s transition game.
Anaheim’s blueline has become a major point of concern, and as a right-shooting defenseman, Drysdale would alleviate those concerns in a big way. However, he will probably go back to the OHL for another year, and might perhaps require some AHL seasoning after that. His skating is so good that it wouldn’t be a surprise if he makes the jump sooner, but he certainly would not put the rebuild into warp speed.
Tier 4: Cole Perfetti, Alexander Holtz, Lucas Raymond
The skill level between these three names is off the charts. Perfetti may be the second-best pure passer in the draft, while possessing a lethal shot and acute hockey sense. He often gets described as a cerebral player, which perhaps understates how skilled he really is. The main drawback for the 18-year old is currently his physical development. That area could round out much sooner than expected, but for now he may yet be a couple of years removed from the NHL. Should he end up as the Ducks’ choice, Anaheim can count on a massive injection of skill into its lineup. Just don’t count on it arriving right away.
Holtz is often described as a pure goal-scorer, and with good reason thanks to a booming wrist shot that has beaten goalies cleanly in the Swedish league. He might not be as much of a playmaker as the names mentioned before him, but he would provide the Ducks with a badly-needed trigger man. He has already been an impact player at the pro level with his 16 points in 34 games for Djurgardens of the Swedish Hockey League; uncommon numbers for a teenager in that league. Maybe he ranks too low here in terms of NHL-readiness, but it stands to reason his developmental path will include another year or two of seasoning.
Raymond got a tough hand dealt to him in the 2019-20 season. As a teenager on the storied Frolunda club, he did not receive the same kind of ice time as Holtz did, lowering his stock in the overall draft rankings. The highly skilled winger has stood out when stacked against his peers though, dominating the junior levels in Sweden. He is still seen as one of the most talented players in the draft, but teams will surely want to see him get more reps in the near future before making the jump to the NHL.
Final Notes
Other names could crack into the top eight of course, but the likes of Sanderson, Yaroslav Askarov, Jack Quinn, etc feel much less likely to be selected by Anaheim. Even if the Ducks’ land the lowest possible pick at eight, they stand to draft a very talented player who will eventually make them a better team.
Clearly though, a lower pick means a longer timeline, which could have serious ramifications. General manager Bob Murray’s contract runs through the 2021-22 season, so his window to get the train back on the tracks is narrowing. Should Anaheim land in the top three though, their rise back to playoff contention could happen much sooner than expected, perhaps saving jobs in the process.