A Look Back on the Impact of 1st Overall Picks
Earlier this week, we provided you with all the need to know information in the lead up to Friday’s draft lottery, and a look at the group of players that the Ducks could be drafting. Now we will be turning an eye towards the past to look at the impact of 1st overall picks from the past 10 years.
The Ducks have a realistic chance, 8.5% to be exact, of winning the first overall pick, which as Felix stated yesterday would switch the rebuild to turbo speed. While that certainly would be the case, I was curious how quickly the past first overall picks made their marks in the NHL. The following are a list of the last ten first overall picks, along with some statistics from their first three seasons in the league to try and see their instant impact.
2010 NHL Draft - Taylor Hall
2010-11 stats: 65 GP 22 G 20 A 42 Pts 5.8 GAR
2011-12 stats: 61 GP 27 G 26 A 53 Pts 13.2 GAR
2012-13 stats: 45 GP 16 G 34 A 50 Pts 9.2 GAR
Taylor Hall immediately made an impact on the Oilers. In each of his first three seasons, he provided steady scoring and above average play that would be beneficial to the Oilers, while also continuing to improve his point production each season. Taylor Hall is exactly what you should hope to get from a first overall pick (in an ideal world you would always get a McDavid first overall, but that simply is not realistic). He is a franchise player that instantly can make an impact while also continuing to grow and improve with the rebuilding roster.
Boom or Bust: Boom
2011 NHL Draft - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2011-12 stats: 62 GP 18 G 34 A 52 Pts 8.6 GAR
2012-13 stats: 40 GP 4 G 20 A 24 Pts 5.8 GAR
2013-14 stats: 80 GP 19 G 37 A 56 Pts 5.8 GAR
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is what I consider to be the baseline for what to expect from a first overall pick. Nugent-Hopkins, like all of the 1st overall picks on this list, made the instant jump to the NHL and had a positive impact right away. The main issue with Nugent-Hopkins is he never made huge strides from a point production standpoint. He has stayed in the 50ish point range for most of his career, resulting in him being a very good second liner as compared to a franchise first line center that you hope to get at first overall. It isn’t sexy to get a good second line center from a first overall pick, but he is certainly not a bust either.
Boom or Bust: Neither
2012 NHL Draft - Nail Yakupov
2012-13 stats: 48 GP 17 G 14 A 31 Pts 0.7 GAR
2013-14 stats: 63 GP 11 G 13 A 24 Pts 0 GAR
2014-15 stats: 81 GP 14 G 19 A 33 Pts -4.4 GAR
Nail Yakupov is a bust. There is no other way to put it, but this draft was an outlier, with no top 10 pick becoming a superstar level player. With that being the case, there is not a whole lot to gain from looking at Yakupov’s career. This pick does not affect my view of 1st overall picks.
Boom or Bust: Bust
2013 NHL Draft - Nathan Mackinnon
2013-14 stats: 82 GP 24 G 39 A 63 Pts 15.3 GAR
2014-15 stats: 64 GP 14 G 24 A 38 Pts 3.4 GAR
2015-16 stats: 72 GP 21 G 31 A 52 Pts 11.9 GAR
After a weird draft in 2012, the 2013 draft class provided a lot more NHL ready players at the top of the draft. Mackinnon instantly had an impact in the NHL with a monster 15.3 GAR season as an 18 year old. He saw a slight downturn in his play before growing into one of the best players in the game. In regards to Lafreniere, I look at Mackinnon as a good model to follow if you are trying to set expectations for Lafreniere on the Ducks. Mackinnon joined a young Avalanche roster with some solid young pieces, like Duchene, O’Reilly, and Landeskog. Mackinnon was able to grow with the roster, and even though players came and went and there were some tough seasons along the way, seven seasons in Mackinnon is a perennial All-Star and Hart trophy candidate, and has helped turn the Avalanche into a very dangerous team.
Boom or Bust: Boom
2014 NHL Draft - Aaron Ekblad
2014-15 stats: 81 GP 12 G 27 A 39 Pts 13.8 GAR
2015-16 stats: 78 GP 15 G 21 A 36 Pts 7.9 GAR
2016-17 stats: 68 GP 10 G 11 A 21 Pts -4 GAR
We finally get to the first defenseman on this list. Defensemen are very difficult to measure in this context, due to them typically taking longer to adapt to the NHL game. Ekblad bucked that trend by making the Panthers better in his first season. He did eventually have some struggles in his development, but has become a legit first pairing defenseman in the NHL. Lafreniere, as you know by know, is not a defenseman so there is not a whole lot to gain by comparing him to Ekblad, but it is good to know that a defenseman can have an instant impact when taken first overall.
Boom or Bust: Boom
2015 NHL Draft - Connor McDavid
2015-16 stats: 45 GP 16 G 32 A 48 Pts 13.2 GAR
2016-17 stats: 82 GP 30 G 70 A 100 Pts 33.6 GAR
2017-18 stats: 82 GP 41 G 67 A 108 Pts 23 GAR
Connor McDavid is a once in a generation type of player. Looking at these stats in comparison to other first overall picks proves that. Coming into the draft McDavid was predicted to become the best player in the league and he has lived up to that billing. Do not expect a typical first overall pick to become Connor McDavid.
Boom or Bust: Boom
2016 NHL Draft - Auston Matthews
2016-17 stats: 82 GP 40 G 29 A 69 Pts 11.5 GAR
2017-18 stats: 62 GP 34 G 29 A 63 Pts 17.9 GAR
2018-19 stats: 68 GP 37 G 36 A 73 Pts 9.2 GAR
Auston Matthews was predicted to be a difference maker for any team that drafted him, but not on the level of McDavid, and his impact over his first three seasons proves that. He instantly became a 40 goal scorer and provided a huge boost for an up and coming Leafs team. Matthews is the upper end of what you can reasonably expect from a first overall pick in his first season, which is an instant first liner.
Boom or Bust: Boom
2017 NHL Draft - Nico Hischier
2017-18 stats: 82 GP 20 G 32 A 52 Pts 15.8 GAR
2018-19 stats: 69 GP 17 G 30 A 47 Pts 15.6 GAR
2019-20 stats: 58 GP 14 G 22 A 36 Pts 4.8 GAR
Nico Hischier, prior to looking at these numbers, was a player I would have considered being closer to a bust than a boom, but as it turns out that is more so due to being on a bad team. Hischier has been just as impactful in his first few seasons as a typical first round pick. His GAR stats prove that. He still needs to develop his game to become a true franchise player, but if the Ducks got a player along the lines of Hischier it would severely help the rebuild.
Boom or Bust: Boom
2018 NHL Draft - Rasmus Dahlin
2018-19 stats: 82 GP 9 G 35 A 44 Pts 8.5 GAR
2019-20 stats: 59 GP 4 G 36 A 40 Pts 4.1 GAR
Dahlin is the second defenseman on this list, and unlike Ekblad, he was known for his offensive ability and he has proven that in his first two seasons by contributing 40+ points each season. There is still a lot that is unknown about how Dahlin with the uncomfortable situation in Buffalo along with their only being a little over a season and half worth of data on him, but I feel comfortable stating that he will be a boom pick for the Sabres.
Boom or Bust: Boom
2019 NHL Draft - Jack Hughes
2019-20 stats: 61 GP 7 G 14 A 21 Pts -3 GAR
Jack Hughes was by far the toughest player to categorize due to the recency of this pick. He has only played 61 games and was 18 for most of that season, but there were plenty of flaws shown in his game over that time period.
He very easily could fix these issues and become the player many had predicted to be, but he is the only player on this list to have a negative GAR in his first NHL season. That is a red flag to me that would cause me some concern
Boom or Bust: Way too early to tell, but after one season at 18 years old he is trending towards bust.
As you can see, the majority of the 1st overall picks instantly have a positive impact on the NHL roster. It may take some time for them to take the reins as the best player on the team, but it is safe to assume that with the first overall pick you will get a player that can make an instant impact on the Ducks roster. Going back to what Felix stated yesterday, getting Alexis Lafreniere would switch the rebuild to Turbo Speed.
*All data per hockey-reference and evolving-hockey