What will it take for the Ducks to make the playoffs next season?
General Manager Bob Murray has made it official: the Anaheim Ducks are in win-now mode.
“We’re a better team,” Murray told Eric Stephens of The Athletic after signing Derek Grant and Kevin Shattenkirk last week. “We’ve got a lot of good teams out West so we got to get going here. I think it’s time and I think you’re going to see improvement with some of our young guys. And if we get improvement in some of the young guys, which it’s time for, and you get a little bit more consistency from the middle age guys, I think we can be right there fighting for a playoff spot.
“There’s no reason we can’t be.”
To many both within the Ducks fandom and especially to those outside, this statement has felt like a reach at best, even after signing Shattenkirk. The Colorado Avalanche remain lethal and got even better this offseason with the acquisition of Brandon Saad from the Chicago Blackhawks. The Vegas Golden Knights just signed the biggest free agent of the offseason in Alex Pietrangelo. The Dallas Stars should enter the upcoming year relatively unchanged from their Stanley Cup Final run.
But I’d like to invite you to a future timeline where the Ducks do have a shot at getting back to the playoffs next season with the roster as it currently stands. What would need to happen in order to make that future a reality?
Long story short, it’s going to take some best-case-scenarios, significant steps forward from multiple players, and some help from other teams. Given the recent rumors of re-aligned divisions due to the pandemic, I am going to approach this scenario as if the proposed altered divisions are official, which means the Pacific will include the following teams:
Anaheim Ducks
Los Angeles Kings
San Jose Sharks
Vegas Golden Knights
Arizona Coyotes
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. At least one of Colorado, Vegas, or Dallas needs to underperform. This is a tall ask, but of those three, it’s pretty clear that the Stars are the weakest of that bunch. While they can put up the occasional offensive outburst, their biggest strengths lie in their defense and goaltending. Perhaps Anton Kuhdobin regresses because goalies are as unpredictable as a Texas thunderstorm. Maybe other teams find a way to exploit the tightly-run Rick Bowness defensive scheme. There is definitely a path for the Stars to falter and drop out of a playoff spot, but remember that this is almost completely out of the Ducks control.
This also assumes that the Sharks and Kings don’t over-perform. San Jose is likely not as bad as their record last year would indicate, but it’s tough to see them bouncing back enough to make the playoffs. Maybe they see something in newly acquired goalie Devan Dubnyk that the rest of us don’t. Also, despite sitting fourth from the bottom of the league in the standings last year, the Kings had long stretches where they put up respectable play-driving numbers. If they can get even average goaltending from Cal Petersen and Jonathan Quick and convert on more of their chances, they could be a surprise as well.
I’m not entirely sure of what to make of the Arizona Coyotes. Losing Taylor Hall to the Buffalo Sabres is a big blow to their offense. If Antti Raanta and Darcey Keumper can stay healthy, you can’t count them out, though.
Now let’s move on to the Ducks themselves. Barring any additional trades or signings, the only significant differences in this team are the additions of Kevin Shattenkirk and the additions of trade deadline players Sonny Milano and Christian Djoos, both of whom should get time in the NHL.
Early returns indicates all three of those players should be upgrades from last season. Shattenkirk obviously represents the biggest potential improvement, as his presence finally gives the Ducks a much-needed blueline threat on the right side as well as an effective power play quarterback.
Last season, the Ducks were 27th in total goal differential at a -39. This obviously needs to be better. Now, increasing scoring isn’t the only way to get back to the playoffs and improve this number; the Stars scored seven less goals than the Ducks and still went to the Stanley Cup Finals. However, they gave up far less because of a much better defense and better goaltending.
If we go the route of shoring up the defense to get back to contention, then two things need to happen:
1. Give up less quality scoring chances
2. Get better goaltending
Number one is obvious to pretty much everyone. The Ducks were one of the worst teams in the NHL in terms of giving up quality scoring chances.
This chart confirms what most of us saw last season: they gave up a very high amount of expected goals per 60 minutes. For reference, Anaheim was 25th last season with 226 goals allowed. Put a simpler way, opposing teams got shots off in dangerous areas a lot, which certainly didn’t help John Gibson and Ryan Miller in net. The addition of Shattenkirk and the early returns on Christian Djoos indicate that this could improve relatively significantly. How much of an improvement remains to be seen, but chances are that they will need to be at least in the top half of these rankings in order to get a shot at the postseason. That would represent a 55% improvement in expected goals allowed. Not impossible, but certainly a tough ask.
The second part of this is better goaltending. Let’s face it, John Gibson did not have a good season, by either traditional or advanced metrics. He had a .904 save percentage and ranked 41st in the NHL with -10.63 goals saved above expected amongst goalies with at least 1000 minutes of ice time. This represents the first time in his career that he was below replacement level in this metric. It’s important to remember that this metric from Evolving Hockey uses expected goals in its calculation, so it actually accounts for the defense in front of him. Compare this with his previous marks of 25.04 GSAx in 2018-19, 33.29 GSAx in 2017-18, and 23.37 GSAx in 2016-17, dominating the NHL over that time period. It’s pretty clear that in order for the Ducks to get back to contention, they are going to need Gibson to rebound significantly. Perhaps the additions on the blueline can help with this and decrease some of his workload.
Now, what about scoring? Anaheim has had one of the worst offenses in the NHL over the past several seasons. Last year, they ranked 26th with 187 goals. Adam Henrique was one of only two players with more than 20 goals (Jakob Silfverberg was the other), and he was the only player to tally more than 40 points.
The advanced numbers, however, give us a little bit of good news.
Again, we’ll assume the Ducks need to enter the top half of the league in expected goals for per 60 in order to give them a chance. In order for that to happen based on last season’s numbers, they will need to increase their dangerous shot rate by about 16%. That is much more doable.
But keep in mind, these numbers are at 5-on-5. What really needs to happen is for this team to start clicking on the power play.
I know you don’t need a chart to tell you that the Ducks were tied for the least amount of goals scored with the man advantage last year. But I like making charts so just give me this one.
Following the theme of getting this team to the top half of these metrics, the Ducks would need an additional 13 goals at least on the power play, a 46% increase. Again, a significant ask.
Shattenkirk again should help give the team a boost in these areas. But in order to hit both of these metrics, some of the young skaters will have to take significant steps forward. At least two of Max Jones, Sam Steel, Max Comtois, Troy Terry, and Sonny Milano will have to start producing. Troy Terry showed signs of becoming a good playmaker near the end of the season before he was sent down to San Diego. Maybe he puts up at least 40 points next season.
Maybe Max Comtois finally finds his goal-scoring consistency and puts up 20 goals. Or maybe Sonny Milano reaches his potential and does the same. Mix and match for any of these guys for all I care. The bottom line is that these players need to start showing what they’re made of. But with most of these players in their prime scoring ages (21-25), they don’t have much longer before they likely settle in and become what they are at the current moment. If these players do not take these steps forward, then it’s difficult to see how this team gets back to the playoffs.
The path back to the playoffs will not be an easy one. Even though Bob Murray has proclaimed that he wants to win, it will take a combination of existing players making significant improvements to their game along with some help from other teams in the division not living up to expectations. And it’s tough to see that being the case, especially if the new western division includes both the Stars and the Avalanche.
The Derek Grant acquisition notwithstanding, Murray has had a good offseason, especially with the Shattenkirk signing. But on paper, adding him alone isn’t going to be nearly enough if everything remains the same as last year. This team did not turn over that much of its roster, so barring any other moves (cough Anthony Duclair cough), the success of this roster and their playoff chances will depend on a couple of rebound performances and production from a group of forwards that have yet to prove themselves.
It’s certainly not impossible, but let’s just say that some divine intervention wouldn’t be unwelcome in Anaheim next season.