The trade deadline is fast approaching and as you all know, the Anaheim Ducks should be looking to sell off members of their aging core to build around newcomers Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale. With that in mind, it is time to examine the players that could be on the trade block for the Ducks and what talent can be acquired on the trade market. To help predict the future let’s look to the past; the following will not only make the case for trading each discussed player but will also identify comparable deals to determine their market value. It’s worth noting that the elephant in the room for this analysis is the flat salary cap. As a result, the flat salary cap may ultimately drive the player’s value below-market.

Rickard Rakell

By now, every single trade board has Rakell near the top of their list and it’s easy to see why. Rakell has a history of scoring 30+ goals, and while he has struggled to break the 20 goal plateau in the prior two seasons, he is still a very good player. If you take a look at his shot-based metrics below you can see that although his goals per 60 minutes of ice time have been on a steady decline since the 16-17 season, his individual shot and chance metrics have actually improved over that time period.

On top of the production numbers above, the thing that is very appealing for Rakell is his contract. Rickard is signed for the remainder of this season along with the next one at $3.789 million AAV. Any team that is trading for Rakell will be getting a player with the ability to slide right into their top six without breaking the bank when it comes to their cap hit.

Comparable trades:

Tyler Toffoli for Tim Schaller, Tyler Madden, 2020 2nd Round Pick, and a 2022 Conditional 4th, with the condition being Toffoli resigns with the Canucks.
Blake Coleman for Nolan Foote and a 2020 1st Round Pick.
Mikael Granlund for Kevin Fiala.

Tyler Toffoli is probably the best player to compare Rickard Rakell to out of those three. They both have had 30+ goal seasons but saw the goal-scoring dry up in the seasons prior to being traded. The main issue with this comparison is that Toffoli was a rental, while Rakell has term. That should give Rakell significantly more value than Toffoli especially if the Ducks retain salary. Due to the added value from the term, the 2nd should become a 1st in that deal and Tyler Madden, who was a very good prospect, could be elevated to a top prospect.

The two other deals saw players move with term left on their deal. Blake Coleman is not close to the point producer Rakell is, having never broken 40 points, while Rakell’s worst season since 15-16 has him at 42 points, but Coleman came in at a $1.8 million AAV. If the Ducks were to retain salary to get Rakell’s cap hit to $1.9 million AAV, they could command a big return. Nolan Foote became the Devil’s 4th best prospect, two tiers below Alexander Holtz. Adjusting this trade to match Rakell’s value, the deal would be a 1st and a top prospect.

Granlund on the other hand has a slightly better track record as a point producer than Rakell, but not by much. Granlund was moved at the 2019 deadline with another year on his contract that saw him at a $5.75 million AAV. In return, the Wild got one of Nashville’s NHL-ready prospects in Kevin Fiala. Fiala was 22 at the time of the deal and has started to flourish in Minnesota, putting up 54 points in 64 games in the 19-20 season. This appears to be closer to the type of deal the Ducks would want to make, with the rumor being they do not want picks for Rakell.

Based on all of that the Ducks should be looking to get a 1st round pick along with a top prospect or a very good prospect. They could instead go the Granlund for Fiala route and get a 22-year-old NHL-ready prospect instead of involving picks.

The likelihood of the Ducks moving Rakell is high. Rakell is the easiest asset to move for the Ducks that could net a high return. In addition to that, he will never have as much value as he does at this deadline because a team will get him for two playoff runs instead of only one if they acquire him in the offseason or during next season. The Ducks are clearly not making the playoffs this season and most likely will not make it next season, so even if the Ducks wanted to keep him, they should look to get future value for him and then come to the table with a contract on July 1, 2022.

The only wrench that was recently thrown into the equation was Rakell’s injury in St Louis. Hopefully, it is nothing major though.

Josh Manson

Josh Manson is the second-highest Duck on most trade deadline boards and just like Rakell, it is easy to see why. Most teams would love to have a big-bodied, right-handed shot D man, that is able to play in nearly all situations and will only eat up $4.1 million AAV for this season and the next. The main issues with Josh Manson is his play has fallen off since his peak performance seasons in 16-17 and 17-18, and he has been injury-prone the last two seasons, playing in 50 of the Ducks 71 games in 19-20 and 11 of the Ducks 37 games in 20-21.

As the numbers below show, he has still been good defensively over the past few seasons, maintaining a xGA/60 similar to the 16-17 and 17-18 seasons. To put it simply, his game within his own zone has remained above average over the course of the past few seasons. The place where he has seen the biggest dip is actually on the offensive end. Manson was surprisingly very good at pushing the play towards the other teams’ zone during his prime years, but that has fallen off in the past few years. This actually should not be a huge deal value-wise, due to Manson being perceived as a modern-day defensive defenseman.

Recent Comparable Trades:

Alec Martinez for a 2020 2nd Round Pick and a 2021 2nd Round Pick
Marco Scandella for a 2020 2nd Round Pick and a 2021 conditional 4th Round pick
Jake Muzzin for Carl Grundstrom, Sean Durzi, and a 2019 1st Round Pick

Jake Muzzin is probably my favorite comparable trade out of the group above and not only due to the return on it being the best of the bunch. I view Manson and Muzzin as similar players when they are at their best. The image below is comparing the two from the 2016-2019 time period. As you can see Muzzin drives shot quantity for at a better rate than Manson does, but Manson is better at suppressing both quantity and quality. If you are Bob Murray, you have to sell that the Manson from 16-19 is what they will be receiving and the slight downturn of late has more to do with the environment around Manson. If you can properly sell a GM on that, then I believe you can ask for a similar return. Muzzin at the time of the trade had a $4 million AAV cap hit for one more season, so the Leafs got him for two playoff runs, which is exactly the position Manson is in. Bob Murray should start by asking for a 1st, and two good to average prospects.

Alec Martinez is probably the next best comparison for Manson, with him having an extra year left on his $4 million AAV contract when he was dealt to Vegas. The issue with this comparison is Martinez had fallen off a cliff by the time of the trade, largely due to being 32 at the time of the deal. If Alec Martinez could net the Kings two 2nd round picks, then Bob Murray should be able to get at least a 1st along with something else for Manson.

Marco Scandella was moved at the 2020 deadline as a rental but there was a conditional fourth added if he re-signed with the Blues, which he would do. If Scandella was able to get a 2nd and a 4th as a rental, one would imagine that Manson should be able to at least get a 1st. Manson is without a doubt a better player now than Scandella was at the time of the trade last year, and is still in his 20s, while Scandella was in his 30s.

One big thing that is different about Manson than the above comparable trades is the fact that he is a RHD. NHL general managers care about handedness and top 4 right-handed d men are hard to find on the trade market.

Based on all of that the Ducks should be looking to get a 1st round pick along with a good prospect, or they could get a 2nd round pick along with a more NHL-ready prospect.

Just like Rakell, I would put the likelihood of Manson moving as high due to the fact that he will never have as high of value as he does at this deadline. The team trading for him will get a top 4 d man at a relatively low cap hit for both this playoff run and the next one. The Ducks will not be in the playoffs this year and most likely won’t in the next one, so they need to recoup future value while they can.

Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg

I am going to lump Silfverberg and Henrique into the same category because they are both guys that are 30+ years of age that have started their decline and both have 4 more years after this one on their current contracts with an AAV of $5.25 million and $5.825 million respectively. Both of these players still can help out teams looking for help at center and wing now, but the main issue with both in terms of trade value is their contract. Neither of these players is performing at a level to warrant their cap hits and neither will be worth that cap hit for the next four years.

The Ducks will certainly have to retain salary on either player if they end up moving them or take a bad money deal in return.

Comparable Trade:

Milan Lucic (12.5% retained) and a Conditional 3rd Round pick for James Neal

It was really tough to find a comparable trade because guys with that much term left on their deal are not moved that often. The Lucic for Neal deal was the best I could find. Lucic at the time of the deal had 4 years left on his deal at $6 million AAV and Neal at the time of the trade had 4 years left at $5.75 million AAV. Due to the salary retention by the Oilers, the Flames gained 500,000 in cap space and they gained a 3rd round pick due to James Neal scoring enough goals to meet the conditions of the pick.

As you can see that deal is not exactly one that you would like to see the Ducks make, and if they were to go down that path, it would most likely be in the offseason.

If the only option is to move Henrique or Silfverberg for another overpaid player, I would suggest the Ducks just stick it out and eat the rest of their contracts. I could not find an example of this type of trade, but if the Ducks retained half of their AAV, maybe a team would give up a late-round pick for one of them. I do not expect either of them to be moved at the deadline.

It is important to note that this is the exact reason why you do not sign 28-30-year-olds to 5-year deals when you are a rebuilding/retooling team. You are not getting their prime years with that type of deal, and by the time you are competitive, those players will be well past their prime scoring years.

Hampus Lindholm

Now it’s time for some speculative fun. Hampus Lindholm is without a doubt the best defenseman on the Ducks, both this season and in prior ones. He is a great defensive defenseman that is a bonafide top pairing D man on almost every team throughout the NHL.

These types of players do not become available that often on the trade market, and we have no inclination that Lindholm is available, but if the Ducks really want to kick start the rebuild they should look into moving him.

Lindholm has a season left after this one on his contract at a $5.205 million AAV, so just like Rakell and Manson, Lindholm will get two playoff runs with whatever team he goes to. The only downside to moving Lindholm now is that he is hurt. This could cause a dip in his trade value, but for the purposes of this article, we are going to assume he will be healthy for the stretch run.

Comparable Trade:

Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller for Vladislav Nemestnikov, Libor Hajek, Brett Howden, 2018 1st round pick, 2019 conditional 2nd round pick (conditions not fulfilled).

Ryan McDonagh had more name recognition due to playing for the New York Rangers, but as you can see below, in the three years prior to his trade he was not as good defensively as Lindholm has been over the past three seasons. McDonagh certainly was better offensively, but within the context of trade value, I would argue their value should be similar. McDonagh at the time of the deal had one additional season after that one at $4.7 million AAV, so the timing of the deal would be similar to Lindholm.

The trade above shows the type of ransom the Ducks could get if they indeed decide to pull the trigger on moving Lindholm. The Rangers did give up J.T. Miller as part of the deal, which boosted the return from the Lightning, but without Miller included the Rangers would have received a 1st and two prospects. It would definitely be a tough pill to swallow in the now, but this trade could pay dividends in the not too distant future.

It is highly unlikely the Ducks move Lindholm at this deadline though because Murray probably views Lindholm as a player he wants to keep around. The big question the Ducks need to get an answer on is will Lindholm re-sign with the team? Even if you believe he is a player you want to keep around, if he wants to test unrestricted free agency, you need to be shopping him now to maximize the return.

Danton Heinen

Poor Danton Heinen. He has found himself in Dallas Eakins' dog house for the majority of the season, even though he has had a positive impact, while he has been in the lineup.

Comparable Trades:

Ritchie for Heinen
Sprong for Djoos
Every other shuffling deck chair trade Murray has made

I am not going to spill too much virtual ink on the potential deal above because they are the typical Murray moves. He trades a guy that he thinks does not “fit” the system for a similar age player that within a season or two won’t “fit” within the system.

If Murray wanted to buck the trend and make a useful trade with one of these players, he should be looking to get a prospect or a pick back for Heinen instead of a player in a similar age range to Heinen.

The likelihood of Heinen being moved is high.

Rental Players

The Ducks do not have many rental players but they have a few that might be able to get late-round picks in return. That list includes David Backes, Jani Hakanpaa, Ben Hutton, and maybe Ryan Miller. I could see each of those players being flipped for a 4th to 7th round pick for veteran depth on a playoff team.

If I were the general manager of the Ducks, I would move both Rakell and Manson at this deadline, and aim for a large bid to also trade Lindholm. These trades would hurt the Ducks’ roster now but would set them up for years to come with their respective deals. I would also flip every upcoming UFA I have that could get me any sort of future asset.

*All stats and charts from Evolving-Hockey

What Could Rakell, Manson, Lindholm And Others Get the Ducks?