5 Takeaways: 7 Defensemen Heaven
The Anaheim Ducks recorded their first regulation win since February 11th against the St. Louis Blues last Friday night, and managed to make that a pair of wins thanks to another victory on Sunday afternoon against the same Blues. Josh Manson scored the overtime winner in that contest thanks to an impressive backhand goal as he walked in all alone on the St. Louis net. A visit with the Colorado Avalanche served as a rude awakening, as the Ducks were handily dismissed by a 5-2 score-line. Here are five takeaways from that trio of games.
1. 11 Forwards, 7 Defensemen, Why?
Ducks head coach Dallas Eakins has insisted on deploying a lineup that features 11 forwards and 7 defensemen, a tactic that is usually seen when teams are dealing with an injury up front, or are trying to work a defenseman back into the rotation, as we saw with Josh Manson when he first came back from injury. Manson has been back since March 22nd, and the Ducks have played at least every other day since that time. Perhaps Eakins believes that the extra blueliner is the best way to ensure his back end stays fresh. However, that removes one forward from the equation, and as we saw when Rickard Rakell went down with an injury on Sunday afternoon, that then leaves the team in the undesirable position of being down to 10 forwards.
Now, injuries are outside of anyone’s control, but the risk is always there, and absent a circumstance that makes going 11F7D absolutely necessary, then the ability to mitigate risk gets needlessly hampered. To boot, Eakins has insisted on inserting career AHLer Andy Welinski into the defensive mix. Despite Welinski posting respectable xGF% numbers in the St. Louis series, his presence on the roster does indirectly come at the expense of having the full slate of forwards. The Ducks limited shot quality against in the first St. Louis game, but then saw an uptick in the second game, and of course another big jump in the Monday night drubbing in Colorado. My best guess is that on a condensed road trip, the coaching staff decided that 7 defensemen was their best way to stay fresh. Now we wait and see what the lineup looks like as the Ducks return to the friendly confines of Honda Center on Friday.
2. Rickard Rakell Goes Down
A scary sight occurred at Enterprise Center in St. Louis, as Rakell had his feet swept away from underneath him by a sprawling Kyle Clifford, who had just lost an edge. Rakell, with no way to break his fall, landed on his back, and appeared to hit his head as well. He stayed down for what felt like an eternity, and had to be helped off of the ice by his teammates. Any injury that may involve the head is always cause for concern, so the hope here is that Rakell is all right and takes all the time off he needs to get right. He was listed as day-to-day with an upper body injury on Monday and did not participate in the tail end of a back-to-back in Denver. He will surely be re-evaluated once the team gets back to Orange County, so his status for Friday night’s game against Arizona remains up in the air.
Of course, it’s difficult to mention Rakell’s name without also bringing up trade deadline considerations. Should his injury be serious, perhaps an already quiet market on him (as Bob Murray described it) gets even quieter. By all accounts, the Ducks want a hefty return for Rakell, and a significant injury on his end would seem to really hinder that possibility, so this will remain a wide open situation to monitor moving forward.
3. Trevor Zegras Scratched Two Consecutive Games
Typically, I try to make my takeaways mainly about what happens on the ice. However, when the best prospect the franchise has had in over a decade gets scratched for two nights in a row, it merits some discussion. Eakins let it be known in his pre-game comments to the media on Saturday that he was not pleased with Zegras’s performance on Friday night, stating that he was on a roller coaster ride that young players go through, and that the NHL is an unkind league to those who are not totally ready.
I went back and watched Zegras’s shifts from Friday. Nothing stood out as particularly heinous. One trend in particular emerged, though. Skills coaches like Adam Oates and Darryl Belfry will often talk about a player’s performance in terms of their success rate on different actions with the puck. Zegras’s success rate, either when making passes or attempting to beat defenders, wasn’t the highest at times against St. Louis.
On Zegras’s first puck touch at 18:02, he attempts to side step his defender, who quickly closes the gap and knocks him off balance, while STL13 is able to break up the play with back pressure. St. Louis is able to get the puck out of the zone rather easily as a result. As much as controlled zone entries are the preferred method in most circumstances, dump-ins have their place at the table too, and in this scenario Zegras would have benefitted from a quick chip into the zone to evade pressure. The rookie has been chided for not making the simple play in the past. With more reps, he should find that balance.
At 17:43, Zegras collects a puck in the neutral zone and attempts to hit Max Jones in stride with a backhand pass, which gets easily batted back by STL77. Again, not an egregious mistake, but another unsuccessful play that the coaching staff probably took note of. Of course, where Zegras undoubtedly got himself in trouble was his two minor penalties, an offensive zone hooking minor in the first and a slashing minor in the second. His ice time would be slashed after the second penalty, which came at the 12:50 mark of the second period. After recording eight shifts up to that point, he would only see the ice five more times for the rest of the game
Not only would the 20-year old forward not see the ice for the rest of the game, he would not see it for the following two games as he was placed on the taxi squad. Perhaps one game was justified after a so-so outing, but two consecutive games, especially with the second being in the tail end of a back-to-back was questionable. Eakins once again went to his 11 forward setup in the Denver altitude, inserting career AHLer Andrew Agozzino into the lineup.
The Ducks broadcast tried to explain the decision on Monday night’s broadcast, citing how by limiting Zegras’s games played this season, the franchise is going to be able to stave off his unrestricted free agency for another year. In a lost season, where the Ducks are set to handily miss the playoffs yet again, is that really what fans want to hear? On one hand, good on them for trying to be more transparent. The more the Ducks can communicate that there is indeed a long term plan in place, the better. The hope is that this becomes the norm, and not just something used to ward off fan rage. Will scratching Zegras for two games stall out his development? Probably not, but since the Ducks are so publicly concerned about his future now, they better make sure he can adequately work through his mistakes as well.
4. John Gibson is Back, Sort Of
Gibson made his return to the lineup on Friday night, and reminded the hockey world of the spectacular brand of goaltending he can display. The 28-year old netminder posted a monstrous 1.43 GSAx and 97.1 save percentage in that contest, and he looked every bit the athlete that observers have come to expect him to be on a nightly basis:
Not only did Gibson show out in his performance, but he looked good doing it, too, thanks to his new black mask. The party would be cut short, unfortunately, as he would be listed day-to-day with a lower body injury for the next two games, an ailment separate from the previous one that held him out of the lineup. With the competitive portion of the season now over, at what point do the Ducks consider shutting Gibson down, or at least severely slashing his ice time? Eakins intimated in his press availability how difficult it can be to have a star goaltender sit on the bench, but with Gibson presumably still being an integral part of this team’s future, rest should be the priority the rest of the way.
5. Drysdale Returns in Colorado
The Ducks’ rookie blueliner made his return after the collective breath hold inducing moment against St. Louis just days before. From a shot metric perspective, it was not a strong night for anyone on the Ducks roster, with Anaheim’s 2020 first round pick feeling the full brunt of that downturn as he posted an ugly 23.4 xGF%. Given the small sample that is his NHL career to date, that would be enough to tank his overall season shot attempt and expected goal differentials on the season to below break-even. As he accumulates more game action, one brutal night like the one in Colorado will have less of an out-sized impact on the overall figures. In reviewing his shifts from that game, though, it became fairly clear that much of his poor numbers seemed to be more about his team being thoroughly out-matched than any noticeable mistakes in his game. His in-zone and open-ice defending looked solid, although Colorado’s neutral zone structure would limit some of the effectiveness of his trademark mobility on zone exits:
From a coaching perspective, perhaps the messaging to Drysdale would be to make his move just a bit sooner. On the above sequence, he has Comtois available to him on the weak side, and a quick up to him allows Comtois to either gain the line with control, or dump it in cleanly and allow Anaheim to establish its forecheck. Instead, Drysdale gets pressured into dumping the puck in with little forechecking support, although it does still end up triggering an offensive zone draw. No harm, no foul, but Drysdale is already at the level where a fine-tooth comb is needed to pick out what can be optimized in his game. The coaching staff already seems to trust Drysdale, as they are willing to play him on his off side while logging significant minutes, as he notched 20:36 of ice time on Monday even with Anaheim dressing seven defensemen.
Honorable Mention: Anthony Stolarz was fantastic in his first start of the season, leading Anaheim to victory thanks to his proficiency in net, while recording a primary assist on Josh Manson’s game winning goal, becoming the first goaltender in Ducks’ history to do so. He needs to play more the rest of the way.
All statistics from Evolving Hockey