No, the NHL Draft Lottery isn't rigged, and this is why
We hear it every year.
“The draft lottery is rigged”
“The NHL doesn’t want Anaheim to win the lottery”
“They want (insert big name prospect here) to go to (insert big metropolitan market here)”
These accusations just won’t go away, despite the fact that the NHL very clearly and transparently has laid out the lottery process multiple times over the years, and have even filmed the lottery drawing.
I would encourage everyone to watch that video, but if you don’t have the time or attention span for it (don’t worry I tend to be one of those people too), then sit down and let me explain to you why the NHL Draft Lottery is not rigged.
How the drawing works
The NHL Draft Lottery begins with commissioner Gary Bettman, one representative from each of the 32 NHL teams, and representatives from Ernst and Young, one of the world’s big four consulting and accounting firms, in the room. Four-digit number combinations, using the numbers 1 through 14, are randomly computer-generated by Ernst and Young. These combinations are randomly assigned to the teams taking part in the lottery, with the number of combinations assigned to each team determined by the lottery odds.
With 14 balls and four-digit combinations, that means 1,001 possible four-number combinations are possible. One of these combinations (11-12-13-14) is designated as a “redraw” combo. If this combination is drawn, Ernst and Young will draw again. That gives us an even 1,000 combinations to assign to teams. So, in the case of the Anaheim Ducks, they have an 18.5% chance of winning the lottery. 18.5% of 1000 is 185. That means the Ducks will be randomly assigned 185 of the possible 1,000 available combinations.
Once each team has been assigned their number combinations, Ernst and Young begins the drawing. All 14 balls are loaded into a mixer, with the machine spitting out a single ball one at a time until four balls are shown. It’s important to note that Ernst and Young are the only ones who are touching the balls or the lottery machine, as well as the sheets with the number combinations. Neither Bettman, any of the 32 team representatives, or anyone else on the planet is touching any of these items. They are simply watching and verifying.
The first drawing is for the first overall pick. As each ball is drawn, the Ernst and Young representative reads the number aloud and shows the ball to everyone in the room. Once four balls have been drawn, another Ernst and Young representative finds which of the teams in the draft lottery owns the unique combination that was drawn. This team wins the lottery and receives the first overall pick. A second drawing, following the exact same process, is done to determine the winner of the second overall pick.
If the team that won the first overall pick has another one of their combinations drawn, Ernst and Young will redraw until a different team with the combination wins, since you can only win once.
As you can see, despite some popular belief, the NHL doesn’t just throw a bunch of ping pong balls with team logos into a mixer. It’s a relatively complex system that ensures a fair and honest draw.
The key to the draft not being rigged
This is all well and good, but it wouldn’t be far-fetched to say: well how can we be sure they’re handling everything properly? How can we be sure the right number of combinations are being assigned to the right teams? What if they’re not random?
Ordinarily, these would be fair questions. But the key to this entire process, and what effectively eliminates all doubt that the lottery is rigged is this: Ernst and Young, one of the big four consulting and accounting firms with $45 billion in revenue and millions of customers around the globe, isn’t going to risk its entire business on rigging the draft lottery for North America’s fourth most popular sports league.
Additionally, the NHL rigging the draft lottery would be one of the biggest scandals in sports history. Given that representatives from all 32 teams are in the room for this drawing every year, don’t you think we would have heard a whisper, even an inkling, that this was manipulated? Instead, there has never been a single shred of legitimate evidence put forth by any journalist, team, or league employee that this process is anything but completely fair.
It’s all about the probabilities
Yes, it will be very disappointing if the Ducks don’t win the draft lottery this year. Losing out on a generational prospect in Connor Bedard would hurt. But keep in mind, the Ducks winning first overall is actually the second most-probable outcome of this draw. Anaheim has a 25.5%* chance to get the first overall pick, an 18.8% chance at second overall, and a 55.7% chance of third overall.
Numbers don’t have emotions. They don’t care where you finished in the standings, where you have picked in previous drafts, or if you have a guy on your team that scores crazy between-the-legs and lacrosse goals. They are simply numbers, and whatever happens is a function of probabilities and nothing else.
So yes, if the Ducks don’t win the lottery drawing for the first overall pick or even the second overall pick, it will be disappointing to some extent. But don’t go around spreading blatant misinformation about the lottery being rigged if it doesn’t work out the way you want it to.
Instead, get excited for one of the franchise-altering players that will be available to the Anaheim Ducks, no matter if they pick first, second, or third.
*Note: even though the lottery odds are 18.5%, teams in the 12-16 spots in the standings can only move up a maximum of 10 spots if they win the lottery. So if the Ottawa Senators at 12th overall win the first lottery draw, they can only move up to second. This would give Anaheim the first overall pick by function of being last in the standings.