Anaheim Ducks 2023 Trade Deadline Preview
The Anaheim Ducks will be sellers again by the time this year’s NHL Trade Deadline arrives next Friday, March 3 at 12pm PT. Despite the pain of witnessing a season of historically bad play, the potential rewards from this year’s trade deadline and draft are on the way to provide some much-needed relief to a beleaguered Ducks fanbase.
As we approach another critical week in furthering Anaheim’s rebuild, Crash The Pond will briefly assess where the Ducks stand currently, and will take a deeper look at potential players who Ducks GM Pat Verbeek may deal within the next week. All statistics below are provided courtesy of Evolving Hockey, and all shot-based metrics are ranked based on a minimum of 250 minutes of TOI.
A HISTORICALLY BAD SEASON IN ANAHEIM continues
As we documented in our midseason review article, the Ducks have underperformed every preseason point total projection this season, and have sported an on-ice product that is among the worst the NHL has seen in the last 15 years. Anaheim’s defensive struggles have been particularly notorious, as their 5v5 xGA/60 and CA/60 rates of 3.58 and 70.19, respectively, rank last among all NHL teams since the 2007-2008 season. It is therefore not an exaggeration to say that the 2022-2023 Ducks have iced the worst defensive team in the NHL in the past 15 seasons. Their offensive play has been poor, but not nearly as inept as their defensive performance. At 5v5 for this season only, they currently rank 28th in xGF/60 (2.28) and 29th in CF/60 (49.09). Anaheim’s xGF% throughout the season is shown below, courtesy of MoneyPuck. They have only posted an xGF% > 50 in 7 of 58 (12%) games this season.
Ducks diehard fans do not need these on-ice metrics to know how demoralizing it has been to watch their team play this season. In spite of a revamped front office under the guidance of Pat Verbeek, the offseason free agent signings of John Klingberg, Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, and Dmitry Kulikov, and the expected development of Anaheim’s young core, the 2022-2023 season has been a massive failure from an on-ice perspective.
However, in due time, Ducks fans may reminisce quite fondly about this season as a period of temporary pain that ultimately resulted in a huge boost in accelerating their rebuild towards completion. In addition to earning a very high pick in the upcoming NHL Draft on June 28 (which is loaded with blue-chip prospects, including Connor Bedard), Verbeek should be able to stockpile more assets ahead of next Friday’s trade deadline.
We will now take a look at the Ducks players most likely to be dealt before the deadline and evaluate their potential returns. We have organized these players into three groups based on the likelihood that they will no longer be wearing Ducks orange and black next Friday at Honda Center.
GROUP 1: VERY LIKELY TO BE DEALT
John Klingberg
Box score stats: 48GP, 7G, 15A, 22 points
On-ice 5v5 metrics: 37.59 xGF% (7th among Ducks defensemen)
CTP Prediction: If there is a team/GM that believes this year’s downturn is driven primarily by a poor environment, Klingberg could fetch a 1st round pick, with the Ducks retaining half of his salary. If that is not the case, he should still be able to get the Ducks a 2nd round pick with the Ducks retaining half of his salary.
Dmitry Kulikov
Box score stats: 58GP, 3G, 12A, 15 points
On-ice 5v5 metrics: 37.12 xGF% (8th among Ducks defensemen)
CTP Prediction: The most likely return for Kulikov is a 3rd round pick, but with the current prices that we are seeing for rental defenseman maybe that can get elevated to a 2nd round pick.
Max Comtois
Box score stats: 44GP, 5G, 5A, 10 points
On-ice 5v5 metrics: 36.65 xGF% (8th among Ducks forwards)
CTP Prediction: Unfortunately, Comtois’ value is at potentially an all time low. He probably gets the Ducks a 3rd round pick if they try to get a pick for him, but more likely they will settle for a “hockey deal” involving another player that needs a change of scenery.
GROUP 2: Uncertain, but could be dealt
Adam Henrique
Box score stats: 57GP, 19G, 14A, 33 points
On-ice 5v5 metrics: 44.90 xGF% (tied-1st among Ducks forwards)
CTP Prediction: The Ducks will have to retain salary on Henrique’s contract in order to make a deal happen. If they do, the result could be a 1st round pick or a 2nd round pick and a prospect.
Kevin Shattenkirk
Box score stats: 51GP, 2G, 15A, 17 points
On-ice 5v5 metrics: 41.79 xGF% (1st among Ducks defensemen)
CTP Prediction: With the current going rate of defensemen, trading Shattenkirk should yield the Ducks a 3rd or 4th round pick.
Anthony Stolarz
Box score stats: 19GP, 3.73 GA/g, 0.899 SV%
On-ice metrics: 2.23 GSAx (All situations)
CTP Prediction: The goalie market is always fickle, especially at deadline time. Stolarz could probably fetch the Ducks a 4th or 5th round pick.
Derek Grant
Box score stats: 22GP, 2G, 4A, 6 points
On-ice 5v5 metrics: 33.20 xGF% (13th among Ducks forwards)
CTP Prediction: Derek Grant in 2020 netted the Ducks a 4th round pick. With the added age and wear and tear, he probably will get them a 5th or 6th round pick this go-around.
Group 3: only time will tell
John Gibson
Box score stats: 39GP, 4.07 GA/g, 0.898 SV%
On-ice metrics: -1.34 GSAx (All situations)
CTP Prediction: Rumors surrounding a potential blockbuster deal involving John Gibson have swirled for the last few years, but neither Bob Murray nor Pat Verbeek have pulled the trigger and shipped Gibson out of Anaheim. Despite Gibson’s recent middling performance, it seems likely that he could still fetch a significant return from several goaltender-hungry franchises around the league. We project that, given an appropriate trade partner, Gibson could fetch the equivalent of 1-2 first-round talents if he were dealt, but with significant uncertainty surrounding his trade demand from other teams.
The pain will end soon
Though Ducks fans have understandably stumbled their way through this season, it is becoming increasingly apparent that better days are on the horizon. This historic season of ineptitude has been difficult to watch, but a lottery pick guaranteeing elite talent, combined with a fresh coaching staff during this offseason, should go a long way towards accelerating Anaheim to the long-awaited conclusion of their rebuild.