Previewing the rest of the Anaheim Ducks season
The Anaheim Ducks (23-16-9, 55 points) are set to play their first game since the All-Star break tonight when they square off against the Seattle Kraken at Honda Center. Before the puck drops, Crash The Pond will take a look back at the Ducks’ eventful and surprising season thus far, and will preview the next few months, which has the potential to be one of the most important periods in franchise history. We will first examine the team’s on-ice play to date, followed by a review of the major front-office upheaval within the Ducks organization over the past few months. We will then look ahead to the final three months of the season, including a Crash The Pond writers survey for four critical questions surrounding Anaheim during this upcoming period.
Review of Ducks’ On-Ice 5v5 Play This Season
58 games into the NHL 2021-2022 season, the Anaheim Ducks sit in 3rd place in the Pacific Division with 55 points but are 4th in the division in Points Percentage. While their on-ice play has shown improvement relative to last season over long stretches, the Ducks’ overall metrics are still below-average, as they currently rank 21st in the NHL in xGF% at 5v5 (48.17%), and 19th in CF% at 5v5 (48.57%) (per Evolving Hockey).
The figure above shows the 5 game moving average of the Ducks’ 5v5 xGF% throughout the season, courtesy of MoneyPuck. This figure tells us that the Ducks began the season with poor on-ice play, which coincided with a 2-4-3 record through 9 games. However, by late October and through December, the Ducks’ on-ice play drastically improved, and they were consistently outperforming their opponents in terms of the quality of on-ice chances they were generating (i.e., their 5v5 xGF% was often greater than 50%). This period of improved underlying play propelled the Ducks to a 17-9-6 record by mid-December, before their season was paused due to COVID-19’s spread throughout the entire league. After returning from this pause, the Ducks’ on-ice play took a dramatic turn for the worse, plummeting below 50% xGF% in early January, where they have remained through the beginning of February. This coincided with a mediocre 6-7-3 record, which brought their overall record down to 23-16-9 heading into the All-Star break. It should be noted that the Ducks themselves were significantly impacted by COVID-19 during this period, which undoubtedly contributed to their inconsistent and below-average on-ice play.
Review of Ducks’ Special Teams Play This Season
On the powerplay, the Ducks have scored at a rate of 8.48 goals per 60 minutes, good for 10th in the NHL. However, their Expected Goals For rate per 60 minutes is just 6.08, which puts them at 27th in the NHL. This tells us that the Ducks have performed well above expectation this season on the powerplay, which could be attributable to many factors outside of their control (e.g., puck luck, poor goaltending performance from opposing teams, etc.).
On the penalty kill, the Ducks have allowed a rate of 5.47 goals per 60 minutes, good for 5th in the NHL. However, their Expected Goals Against rate per 60 minutes is a much larger 8.03, which puts them at 23rd in the NHL. As we examined in our Pacific Division Midseason Review Article, Anaheim’s performance on the PK exceeding expectations has been strongly influenced by the elite play of goaltender John Gibson on the PK.
Overall, the Ducks have been a below-average on-ice team at both 5v5 and on the PP/PK during the season thus far. They have benefited from outstanding shorthanded goaltending by John Gibson, and also suffered at 5v5 in late December and through January in part because of significant disruptions to their lineup due to COVID-19.
GM Flux: Murray Out, Verbeek In
Although the Ducks’ 23-16-9 record this season has been a major surprise, an even bigger shock surrounding the team occurred last November, when then-GM Bob Murray resigned, largely due to allegations pertaining to improper professional conduct. Over the next few months, Jeff Solomon served as Anaheim’s interim GM, and the Ducks conducted an extensive search for a new GM that included internal candidates such as Solomon and Mark Madden, as well as a number of external candidates. This search concluded in early February, as former Detroit Red Wings assistant GM Pat Verbeek was named Anaheim's new GM. The timing of the conclusion of this GM search was critical for Anaheim, as it was important for the team to have a competent GM in place well ahead of the NHL’s March 21, 2022 Trade Deadline.
Trade Deadline: Make-or-Break Time to Deal Pending UFAs
The forthcoming 6-week stretch leading up to the aforementioned NHL Trade Deadline on March 21 has the potential to be one of the most consequential periods in Anaheim Ducks franchise history. New Ducks GM Pat Verbeek has stated publicly that he believes the Ducks are still in the middle of a rebuild, and it seems likely that one or more of the Ducks’ major pending UFAs (Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, & Rickard Rakell) will be dealt before the deadline. Crash The Pond co-founder Jake Rudolph recently wrote an article analyzing the potential market value for each of these players. Although the Ducks are currently in the mix for a playoff spot in Western Conference, it will be much more consequential long-term if management properly handles this year’s Trade Deadline and moves these valuable assets for NHL-ready prospects or future draft picks, which would further entrench Anaheim as a force to be reckoned with in the NHL in future seasons.
Crash The Pond Staff Predictions for the Remainder of This Season
Will the Ducks make the playoffs?
Jake: Yes. I think Verbeek will sell off guys, but also bring in NHL-ready young talent that will help the Ducks push for the playoffs and fit their contending window.
Felix: Yes, I still think they make it, despite a very challenging road ahead. Their 5v5 play has dipped in the new year, but with the return of Sonny Milano and John Gibson playing his way into the Vezina conversation, I think that they squeak in.
CJ: Yes.
Mike: Yes, as the #3 seed in the Pacific Division behind Calgary and Vegas.
Bob: I think it's possible. I'm sticking to my prediction of Yes.
Eric: They barely squeak into a Wild Card spot but don't make it past the first round, likely due to injuries to a key player or two.
Jonathan: No. They’ll finish 6 points out of the last Wild Card spot.
What will be the Trade Deadline fates for each of the following pending UFAs: Nicolas Deslauriers, Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, & Rickard Rakell?
Jake: All traded.
Felix: All four are gone. Deslauriers gets flipped for a draft pick to a team that needs his toughness, while the bigger names all find new homes. I just don't see how it makes sense for the Ducks to hand out extensions left and right, particularly when Pat Verbeek has the unique opportunity of giving himself a true fresh start in his new job.
CJ: DLo: Bye, Lindholm: Bye, Manson: Bye, Rakell: extended.
Mike: All four of them will be traded.
Bob: Trade them all. SELL SELL SELL. The least likely to be traded is Deslauriers, but I still think it happens.
Eric: I think we'll see at least one of Manson, Rakell, or Lindholm signed to an extension (my guess would be Lindholm) and the others will be dealt.
Jonathan: Manson and Rakell will be dealt, while Deslauriers will stay and Lindholm will be extended.
Will John Gibson be traded before the Trade Deadline?
Jake: No.
Felix: No, John Gibson will not be traded before the deadline. Yes, there are rumblings that he would not be happy with a fire sale at the deadline, but I think Verbeek finds a way to sell him on his long-term plan. Plus, flipping the assets gained from the UFA's into a Jakob Chychrun would probably help to alleviate some of his concerns.
CJ: Nope.
Mike: No, but it would not surprise me if he is irked by Verbeek’s declaration that the Ducks are still in the middle of a rebuild, and by the likelihood of Verbeek trading away pending UFAs.
Bob: No.
Eric: No. Perhaps in a year or two depending on the development of Dostal, but definitely not this season.
Jonathan: Absolutely not.
Will Dallas Eakins receive a contract extension during/after this season?
Jake: No. I think Verbeek will want to bring in his own guy.
Felix: No, I don't think so. Verbeek was non-committal when asked about Eakins' future, which is what one would expect, so I'm not treating it as evidence against Eakins' chances. New general managers usually like to "get their guy", as we have seen with Kent Hughes in Montreal hiring Martin St. Louis thanks to their Vermont connection. I see a similar path unfolding in Anaheim.
CJ: Nope.
Mike: No, because I think Verbeek will ultimately want to hire his own head coach. However, I personally think an extension would be warranted for Eakins, conditioned upon lineup construction responsibilities being delegated to either management or assistant coaches.
Bob: No.
Eric: This is the toughest one to answer because I have zero idea of how Pat Verbeek feels about bringing in his own guy or if he doesn't want to rock the boat. If I had to take a guess, I'd say that as long as the Ducks find a way into the postseason this year and continue to show growth, Eakins gets a 2-year extension. If the Ducks crash and burn at the end of this year and miss the playoffs, it’s hard to imagine Eakins getting an extension when Verbeek gets the clear shot to hire whoever he wants. Whether Eakins makes it through those next couple of seasons if he is given the extension is a very different question.
Jonathan: No.
In summary, the next few months are going to be an absolute blast for Anaheim Ducks fans. The combination of an ongoing playoff push with the potential for hugely consequential trades will make for an entertaining period that will shape the future trajectory of the franchise for years to come.