5 Takeaways: The Ducks Could be Improving, But Are They Really?

The Anaheim Ducks dropped a 3-2 decision against the San Jose Sharks earlier in the week. Many positives can be drawn from that night, but the fact of the matter is that Anaheim failed to capitalize on a strong offensive performance against possibly the worst team in the division. Here are five takeaways from both that night and the state of the team as a whole heading into Thursday’s matchup against the Minnesota Wild.

The Offense Could be Coming

Ducks head coach Dallas Eakins made an interesting comment on Wednesday, highlighting the fact that Anaheim’s expected goal numbers have been excellent over roughly the last five games. Before getting into the nuts and bolts of that observation, it’s worth mentioning how refreshing it is to hear an NHL coach cite analytics. At the very least, Eakins is aware of how his team looks from an analytical perspective, and perhaps even uses that to instruct his decision-making (though of that, we can be far less certain).

The major caveat, of course, is that Anaheim has not exactly faced the stiffest competition over that stretch of time. While their numbers shined against the likes of San Jose and Los Angeles, they were much closer to their overall average against division-leading Vegas. The next few games against Minnesota and Arizona should be a good indicator for whether or not this recent improvement was simply a product of playing the California bottom-feeders or a true shift in the way the Ducks are playing.

Just Bad Luck?

Although their underlying process has looked better, with an uptick in scoring chances and expected goals, the Ducks still can’t seem to buy a goal. Along with the power play, Eakins has spoken at length about this being perhaps the team’s biggest issue. Of course, Anaheim is probably due some upward regression from their 30th ranked 6.55 shooting percentage, but by how much?

The Ducks are 12th in terms of generating expected goals at 5v5 per 60 minutes, and their shooting percentage in that phase of the game ranks 23rd. Clearly, there is room for an uptick there, and even if you hold the opinion that the team’s lack of shooting talent has more to do with that disparity than bad luck, you would probably still conceded that there’s room for growth purely based on getting some more bounces.

On the power play, Anaheim ranks 18th in xGF/60, and 25th in shooting percentage with an approach that has largely consisted of point shots and hunting rebounds. Because public expected goal models do not account for pre-shot movement (lateral passes that get the goalie moving, which ought to increase the chances of a shot going in), the Ducks overall ranking may be largely buoyed by those rebound chances, and it’s possible they'd look much worse with more complete data.

In short, yes, the Ducks may be victims of poor shooting luck so far, but when you factor in their low-upside, point-shot heavy power play, the luck argument gets significantly weaker. Bigger changes in their approach with the man advantage will need to be made.

Isac Lundestrom Snakebitten Against San Jose

Lundestrom has undoubtedly played a solid brand of hockey as of late. Ever since he has been placed between Max Comtois and Rickard Rakell, his underlying numbers have sky-rocketed. He leads all Ducks skaters both in terms of expected goals-for percentage and shot-attempts for percentage. Now, that’s not to imply that he’s been the Ducks player by any means, just that he’s excelled in his role.

However, there is one concerning trend, and maybe this is just small sample theater playing out. The 2018 first-rounder had three golden opportunities to score on Monday night, all of which he either flubbed or missed the net. Now, players miss shots, there’s nothing striking about that, but we’ve seen Lundestrom miss A-plus opportunities before, notably against Vegas where he couldn’t tuck the puck in on his backhand with almost the entire cage available to him. Lundestrom has never been known as a goal-scorer in his career, and it will be interesting to see how many more missed opportunities Eakins can bear watching slip away as his squad pushes for a playoff berth.

Rickard Rakell Puts on a Show

Eakins mentioned that he may not have ever seen Rakell play a better game than he played against the Sharks, and it’s not hard to understand why. He was flying through the neutral zone, attacking defenders in open ice, using his arsenal of one-on-one maneuvers to deftly evade them:

Rakell’s effectiveness wasn’t just limited to open ice. He was winning battles along the boards, shielding the puck with the body, even throwing some Peter Forsberg-esque reverse hits on his defenders. Rakell looking like the Rakell of old is great news for an Anaheim club in desperate need of offense.

Does John Gibson Need a Break?

The Ducks’ ace netminder was red-hot to start the season, at one point ranking first in the NHL in Evolving-Hockey’s goals-saved above expected metric. Now, he ranks tenth in that category, which is still an admirable figure, but it’s a significant step down from how he started. The Ducks struggled badly in the defensive zone to start the year, but they rank 10th in expected-goals against per 60 at 5v5 in their last five games and have been slowly improving overall in that respect.

Did the insane volume Gibson faced early on compromise him physically? That would be one explanation for the decline in his numbers, or it could simply be that he’s not playing well. Anaheim cannot really afford to give him extended rest, not with the way Ryan Miller has faltered to date. Gibson may have to just go back to the lab with goalie coach Sudarshan Maharaj because even if they are to improve defensively, the Ducks will need the very best of him in order to offset their scoring struggles.