5 Takeaways: Are the Ducks Actually Good?
The Ducks put together some stellar performances against both the Sharks and the Kings prior to the series against the Golden Knights, which left Ducks fans asking the question: was the improved play due to the Ducks actually getting better or due to a weaker opponent?
The Ducks passed the first test in answering that question by putting up a great two-game performance against the class of the West.
1. Isac Lundestrom Takes a Step Forward
I have never been that high on Isac Lundestrom, from essentially the moment the Ducks drafted him. He always seemed like a high floor, low ceiling type of prospect that would top out as a 3rd line center, and as of late I started to question if that was even possible for him.
Lundestrom must have heard that coming from me and sure proved me wrong in this two-game stretch. He looked so much more comfortable with the puck on his stick and it showed from an eye test level, production standpoint, and on-ice metric standpoint.
In the first game of the series, Lundestrom scored with an absolute snipe from the slot to beat Fleury. This was the type of finish that quite frankly I did not think he had in him. He then followed that up in game two by pulling off a great forehand backhand move that I am pretty confident in saying is in the back of the net 9 times out of 10. This one time just happened that 1 time out of 10 where Fleury reached back and made a miraculous save to pull the puck off of the goal line.
Over this two-game stretch, Lundestrom posted a 51.26 xGF% at 5v5, which is extremely impressive against Vegas.
I am not completely ready to say I was wrong on Lundestrom due to this only being a two-game sample size, but if he continues to play this way I will gladly admit that.
2. Max Comtois Loves Playing Vegas
Max Comtois has scored six goals this season and four of those goals have come against the Vegas Golden Knights. On top of that, he has two assists this season and one of those has come against Vegas, which means that five of his eight points have come against Vegas.
I am not sure if there is a grand takeaway to make from these numbers, but there are some teams that guys just get up for or just have a knack for scoring against.
The good news is his line had better on ice metrics in this series than it did in the prior series against Vegas, so the production from Comtois could be more sustainable now.
3. Henrique-Getzlaf-Terry Dominated
These three players were in the top five for the Ducks in individual expected goals in all situations over the course of that series. For those that are not up to date with what that means, individual expected goals are how many goals each of them should have scored in the series based upon the location and context of the shots that they took.
Getzlaf finished the series with 1.09, Henrique with 0.75, and Terry with 0.23 expected goals. In addition to that, these three combined to account for the three Ducks goals in the third period of the first game that saw the Ducks claw back from a 4-1 deficit to tie up the game.
Even outside of their individual production in all situations, this line was the go-to line for the Ducks in chance generation. They created the most expected goals for over the course of the series at 0.94, while only allowing 0.63 expected goals against.
The Ducks have finally found a line this season that can turn the tide of a game for them, and I fully expect this line to continue doing that.
4. Sam Steel gets Scratched
All of us at Crash The Pond were hoping for a big season for Sam Steel. This should have been a breakout year for him, where he showed that he could become a long term second-line center for this Ducks team. He just turned 23, which means he is one year away from entering his scoring peak, so it is put up or shut up time.
After an encouraging first game of the season though, it has all been downhill for Sam. His on-ice metrics have been bad this year (41.66 xGF%, 47.85 CF%, 43.2 SCF%, and 35.94 HDCF%) and he has been a drag on anyone he has played with this season. Looking at almost every forward he has played with this season, only one has been better with Steel as compared to without him and that is Jakob Silfverberg, but it is 51.71 xGF% with and 49.67 xGF% without, so a marginal difference.
It seems like Dallas finally saw this in the first game against Vegas and he went on to scratch Sam Steel in the second game for Derek Grant. The writing was on the wall that this should happen for the betterment of the Ducks and Sam Steel. I fully expect Steel to draw back into the lineup soon, but I have a hunch that he really needs some time in the AHL this season to work on various things like his offensive zone reads and defensive zone positioning. He was the only “kid” to avoid being sent down last year, and it appears to me as he could really use that this year.
5. Lindholm-Shattenkirk Pairing Dominated
As CJ pointed out last week, this D pairing was dominant against LA, and they have continued that ever since including in the Vegas series.
Against Vegas, this pairing was on the ice for 1.21 xGF and only 0.72 xGA, good for a 62.86 xGF% to go along with very solid on-ice goal metrics also. They were on the ice for 2 goals for and only 1 against, all while primarily being matched up against the Vegas top line.
The big improvement in this D pair is a big reason for the improved play by the Ducks. They were on the ice for 35+ minutes at 5v5 throughout the series, so if this D pairing can continue to play as they have, the Ducks will have a chance in nearly every game they play in.
All statistics courtesy of Natrualstattrick.