Why The Anaheim Ducks Don't Need to Panic Yet
The Anaheim Ducks are now five games into their 2021 season, and with only one win in those five games, it might seem like it's getting close to time to start looking toward next draft season and what the future holds past this season. I'm here to tell you why it's not quite time to push the panic button, and why the Ducks can still meet, and even possibly exceed, their goal this season of a postseason berth.
To do this, let's take a look again at the big picture view of what this season entails and who the Ducks will be playing their games against. With the top four out of eight teams making the playoffs and factoring in that you only play against your division opponents, by the law of averages, you only need to be slightly above the .500 mark to reach the 4th spot out of eight.
I'm going to take a guess based on points percentages for the past few seasons for the final teams that qualified for the postseason and say that it takes approximately 62-64 points to grab the 4th spot and make the playoffs. With eight games each against seven divisional opponents, that means there is a total potential of 16 points to be had from each opponent in the West. The only two teams that experts had predicted the Ducks might finish ahead of in the division were the San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings, and these will be the "must-win" games of the season for the Ducks. With 32 potential points available in the CA rivalries, we can assume that the Ducks need to feast here and collect at least 24 of these 32 points. In 16 games, a record of 10-2-4 will get them there. It sounds like a lot to ask of a team exiting a "retool" and struggling to score goals, but the Kings and Sharks haven't shown much in terms of being able to upset the Ducks and go on any kind of run.
Next on the list would be the games against the Minnesota Wild and Arizona Coyotes. These are the teams that the Ducks will more than likely be battling for that 4th and final playoff spot in the West division. However, there shouldn't be any expectation that the Ducks come out and blow these teams out of the water to secure their playoff position. Assuming they split these games evenly, which should be a fair expectation of the team this season, that gives them 16 of the 32 possible points, and a total of 40 points.
Next stands the St Louis Blues, a team that is undoubtedly better on paper than the Anaheim Ducks, but one that doesn't quite stand on the tier that the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche do. If the Ducks can scratch out a 3-3-2 record in the eight games against the Blues, that gives them another eight points, bringing their total to 48.
That leaves the Golden Knights and the Avalanche, the two teams that Ducks fans should, in theory, never have an expectation of a win when they play. Any and all points that the Ducks can claim when playing these two will be absolutely massive toward their goal of a playoff berth and will lighten the load of what they need to do against other teams in the division. Asking them to claim 14 points out of a possible 32 against those teams shouldn't be too much of an ask of them, especially since the Ducks seem to have a weird knack for playing the Avalanche really well. In 16 games, a record of 5-7-4 would give them the points they need from these teams to reach the goal of 62 points. With an 0-1-2 record currently against the Knights and Avs, they've already taken two points from these Cup favorites.
The point at the end of the day is this. The Ducks are 1-3-2 in their first five games of the season, but stunning the world and beating the Golden Knights and Avalanche to start the season was never part of the plan to make the playoffs. They split their series with Minnesota 1-1, and that's exactly what they need to do to give themselves the chance to see the playoffs. The offense will get better as chemistry builds and the ketchup bottle unclogs, the defense has shown massive improvements with Jani Hakanpaa and Jacob Larsson, and even though Josh Manson will be out for six weeks, this shouldn't change too much of how their season outlook appeared.
Let's all take a collective breath going into tomorrow's rematch against the Colorado Avalanche and recognize that although the odds signify that the Ducks will move to 1-5 in their first six games, this shouldn't ever mean that it's time to pack it in and look to sell assets. Just stick to the plan and win the games you need to win.