The Anaheim Ducks Fan Guide to Watching a Rebuilding Team
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Some of you might remember that I wrote an article similar to this one a couple of seasons ago when it was apparent that the Anaheim Ducks likely wouldn’t be competing for a playoff spot for the first time in, well, a long time.
Since that article was published in 2019, the Ducks have finished 27th and 30th in the league, and this year is not shaping up to be much better, with some projections placing the team at the very bottom of the league, now sporting 32 teams with the inaugural season of the Seattle Kraken. And with the organization finally publicly embracing a full rebuild this year, it’s not far-fetched to say that this will be another rough year for the franchise in their quest to return to playoff contention.
With a shift in philosophy and different vibe to the team this season, I wanted to revisit the concept of supporting a team through a rebuild. The thing that rubbed fans the wrong way the most, more than anything else in recent years, was the team’s lack of realistic, coherent strategy and poor communication with the fans. While no one expected the Ducks to issue a press release saying “Yo we suck”, what fans didn’t want was a barrage of messaging saying they want to take a step forward and make a run at the playoffs, only to sputter out 10 games into the season and watch John Gibson get crushed by a 500 pound anvil Looney Tunes-style night in and night out.
This year, the rebuild is “officially” on–even though, realistically, it’s been on for a couple of years now. It generally goes against the nature of being a sports fan to expect your favorite team to perform poorly. And going in to a season expecting to be bad can suck the passion right out of even the most die-hard fan’s heart.
I’m here to give you good news, though. It is possible to still enjoy a bad hockey team. Yes, even the Ducks. No, it’s not nearly as fun as watching your team dominate and make a run at ultimate glory, but it’s a way to keep your sanity and maybe, just maybe, get excited for the future.
With all of that out of the way, I now present to you the Ducks fan’s guide to supporting a rebuilding team.
It’s not about the standings, it’s about the process.
Let me repeat: it’s not about the standings, it’s about the process.
The absolute last thing to do is pay attention to where the Ducks are in the standings (other than to figure out what their lottery chances are). That way lies madness. Instead, it’s important to look at two main components of the team:
The play of the players on the ice and how the coaching staff utilizes them
The roster construction decisions of the front office
Let’s start with number one.
First and foremost, look at how the players are performing. Sure, goals would be nice, but let’s be real, we’re not going to see a lot of those this season. As it turns out, there’s a lot more to hockey than just shooting. There’s defensive play, there’s skating, there’s puck movement, there’s decision-making, there’s physical play, and so much more!
Perhaps the most important underlying skill a team needs to be successful long term is limiting time in their defensive zone and effectively and efficiently moving the puck from the defensive zone, through neutral ice, and into the offensive zone. Spending more time in the offensive zone is obviously what we want to see, but given the players on this team, I would say that the transition game is going to be more important this season.
Can the Ducks retrieve the puck in their own zone quickly? Can they make clean exits without turnovers or disruptions from the other team? Can they carry it cleanly through the neutral zone without similar disruptions? What we don’t want to see are players constantly chipping the puck out of the zone to relieve pressure or poor passes broken up by players or just missing the target. Sure, this is going to happen sometimes, but the key is that it doesn’t happen a majority of the time.
While we’re still in the defensive zone, another evaluation point is the performance of the other team on offense. Are the Ducks letting opponents get off shots easily? Are they letting their skaters get into dangerous areas of the ice without contesting them (most of the time, dangerous areas refers to the slot in between the face-off circles and anywhere within a 5-6 ft. radius of the goalie crease). This is part of what many hockey people refer to as “being tough to play against”. It’s not just hitting people or blocking shots. The best defense a hockey team can put up is one that limits shot attempts in the first place.
If you want an example of someone on the Ducks who excels at this, look no further than Hampus Lindholm. Lindholm, for almost his entire career, has been one of the NHL’s elite defenders at disrupting offensive zone entries and shot attempts for the other team. He closes in on approaching puck carriers extremely quickly as they try to cross the blue line and rarely allows enough space or time for them to get quality shots off.
On the defense to offense transition side, Cam Fowler has historically been one of the better players in the league at effectively moving the puck up ice to transition to offensive play. These two players are good blueprints for the other skaters (both forwards and defense), especially young players like Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras.
On the offensive part of the game, these are the questions to ask: Are the puck carriers bringing it into the zone cleanly without disruption, or are they being stopped at the blue line or having to dump it in? I want to be clear that dumping the puck isn’t always a bad thing. Every team does it; even the elite ones. Dumping the puck is just fine when used for line changes or if a team has closed in on a player and there are no passing or skating options left. The key here is that the “dump and chase” scheme doesn’t make up the majority of a team’s zone entries and that it is only used for line changes or as a last resort to avoid a turnover. If dump-ins become the norm, that’s where problems arise, since you can’t get shots off if you’re giving the puck back to the other team willingly.
The cool thing about hockey is that, very often, offensive skills are essentially the opposite of defensive skills. A good defense doesn’t allow players into dangerous areas of the ice and limits shot attempts, both in number and in quality. Guess what? This is exactly the opposite; you want to see players in the offensive zone get into dangerous areas. You want to see them get clean shots off. And you definitely want to see the puck get into that dangerous area of the ice I was talking about a minute ago.
This is one of the things that makes us so excited for Trevor Zegras: he has shown that he is adept at getting the puck into that danger area in the slot and around the crease, often with blistering passes through lanes that he sees opening up a split second before everyone else on the ice.
Perhaps one of the most important aspects of the game that we will be looking for is the power play. The Ducks power play ranked 27th in 2020 and dead last in 2021. Anyone who watched even a single game last year knew a massive overhaul had to happen. The hope is that new assistant coaches Newell Brown and Geoff Ward can help remake the power play to something that at least has more danger than a scared kitten.
The Ducks don’t have much in the way of finishers, so don’t expect this team to put up a top five unit. What is much more important is to see how the Ducks enter the zone, set up, and move the puck. The Ducks were awful at clean zone entries on the power play last season, so that is step one. The Ducks structure wasn’t a big issue, in my view, as they seemed to favor the 1-3-1 setup which has a defenseman or forward at the point, three skaters in the middle from the left boards to the right, and a skater in front of the goalie. This gives everyone good passing options with some extra room to skate while cutting down on decision making time since the puck carrier generally knows where their passing options are without looking.
Perhaps the thing the Ducks have been worst at with the man advantage has been puck movement. Modern successful power plays like the ones in Tampa Bay and elsewhere rely on two main components: 1. constant puck and body movement that aims to pull the penalty killers’ coverage apart and create passing lanes from side to side to get the goalie moving where he is most vulnerable, and 2. a one-time shooting threat on one or both sides of the ice.
The Ducks have historically set up their power play and just passed the puck around the perimeter of the ice. The problem is that this strategy is incredibly easy to defend, because penalty killers can stay in their area without moving much, which inevitably leads to a low danger shot from the point. This system is set up in a way that waits for the penalty killers to make a mistake, which isn’t going to happen much with a professional hockey team at the highest level.
Instead, good puck movement creates opportunities where none existed before. If you’re waiting on the other team to fall out of position, you’re going to have a bad time. Getting into open ice and moving the puck laterally with confidence is the best way to pull apart the penalty kill coverage.
As for the one-timer options, the Ducks still don’t have great options in that regard, which will limit the effectiveness of the power play. But players like Max Comtois, Rickard Rakell, Trevor Zegras, and Ryan Getzlaf offer some level of upside in this case.
The final thing to watch out for on the ice is the coaching. One of the main reasons the Ducks got caved in most nights was the staff’s insistence on giving tough matchups to the fourth line of Derek Grant, Nic Deslauriers, and Carter Rowney. This line was never built to be a defensive stalwart, and why they continued to be used in this fashion, we had no idea. This was one of the more clear examples of questionable coaching deployment. It wasn’t so much about the players as it was on the staff not placing them in a situation to succeed.
Another critique that was common was usage of the young players; namely Drysdale and Zegras. Putting an 18 year old on his off side with Josh Manson, a player who isn’t bad, but also isn’t as good as he used to be, usually won't lead to great results. Similarly, benching Zegras after a single turnover or refusing to let him take defensive faceoffs while veteran players who routinely make mistakes got the benefit of the doubt doesn’t make for good development.
This season, look to see if the staff deploys their players according to their skillsets. If the team wants Trevor Zegras to become its number one center, give him the minutes and responsibilities to go along with it. Similarly, put Jamie Drysdale in a position to succeed with a solid partner and on his right side as a 19 year old while he continues to improve his NHL game. Let Jakob Silfverberg, Troy Terry, and Ryan Getzlaf take the tougher offensive matchups, as they have proven that they can limit changes and transition play effectively. Those jobs are not fit for fourth liners who’s primary job should be energetic ice time eaters who make life difficult for the opposing team and prevent them from getting any semblance of a system established. Any scoring coming from this line is just a bonus.
Now let’s look at number two: the roster construction decisions of the front office.
This is an absolutely critical year for General Manager Bob Murray. Yes, we’ve said this before, but this year has even more urgency for chance. Why, you ask? Because the Ducks have three veteran players with contracts that expire this season: Rickard Rakell, Josh Manson, and Hampus Lindholm. We can argue about whether or not these players should have been traded by now, but the fact of the matter is that they are still here one year before they hit free agency.
For a rebuilding team, at least one of these players has to go. Ideally, it’s all three of them, but moving even one of them is in the best interest of the franchise. To be clear, wanting to trade them has absolutely nothing to do with their skill level. If anything, it’s an endorsement of their skill and what they can potentially bring to a a contending team. These are three good players that contenders will pay good assets for, like first round picks and possibly even high-ceiling prospects. They have given their prime years to Anaheim and deserve a chance to chase a cup. And on the team side, if all three of these players make it past the trade deadline without returning future assets for the team, then it would be a massive failure. It will likely be at least two to three years before the Ducks can make a run at a cup again, and signing late 20s/early 30s players to extensions not only guarantees you’re paying extra money for aging production, but also takes away money needed to keep younger players like Zegras and Drysdale when it comes time to pay them. Time is undefeated. You cannot beat age-related decline.
This is life in the salary cap era for NHL teams. There is absolutely no way around it. So if you want to get better, you have to play ball. And what the front office does with these players depending on the trade market will tell us all we need to know about their ability to execute an effective rebuild.
Turning good veteran NHL players from the Ducks last playoff cycle into future assets that raise the ceiling of the franchise is the main barometer of success to judge the front office by. This season will either put a charge into the rebuild or run it into a brick wall depending on the moves made.
The good news is that sources within the Ducks organization have told us that they are more willing than ever to trade veterans for the right (read: fair) price specifically because of these expiring deals. There may even be willingness to trade players with term like Adam Henrique or John Gibson should the right offer arise.
Even the smaller moves can tell us a lot about the organization’s thought process. Sending Sonny Milano through waivers down to San Diego tells us that they do not see all that much upside in him anymore, though it also could indicate that it was paving the way for Mason McTavish to make the team. And while the small moves generally aren’t worth making too big a deal out of, they give us a rare glimpse into the minds of Bob Murray and his assistants and how they view the current roster and how they might approach future, more significant moves when it comes to the rebuild.
To label this season a success in the absence of wins on the ice, look at how the front office sets the Ducks up heading into next season and the season after that. Don’t worry about how they look this year. That doesn’t matter nearly as much as the future composition of the team.
Supporting a rebuilding team is tough because it requires a different state of mind and different measures of success. The traditional measures of goals and wins and trophies go out the window. The new measures, that of play style, future roster construction, and coaching decisions now take center stage.
At the end of the day, each fan will watch and support the team how they choose. This piece isn’t intended for me to instruct people on the proper way to support a team. It is meant as a guide for those who either go into this season dreading watching a bad team, or for people who may find themselves searching for ways to remain hopeful for brighter days ahead.
There will be plenty of mistakes and plenty to complain about this season, but there will also likely be plenty to praise. This season is shaping up to be much different than past ones. Most importantly, however, this team is shaping up to be much more fun to watch. And at the end of the day, we’re here to be entertained.