Hockey and the Ducks are Back!!!!

The NHL and the NHLPA have agreed on a return to play format and news has started to trickle out about the details of the season. It will be a 56 game season beginning on January 13th, with the Ducks training camp beginning on December 31st. This training camp will see a reduced roster size from a typical training camp due to the reduced schedule along with the removal of all preseason games. Training camp will be limited to 36 skaters and an unlimited number of goalies. The format of the season will be a lot different also, with the season being purely divisional and there being a divisional realignment. The trade deadline will be April 12th and the season will end on May 8th.

Some other vital pieces of information are that the entry level-slide game requirement for rookies drops from 10 games to 7 games, NHL teams will have a taxi squad, NHL teams will be required to have 3 goalies at all times between their active roster and taxi squad, waivers will be required to send players to the taxi squad, expansion draft exposure requirement goes from 40/70 to 27/54, expansion draft career-ending injury threshold changes from 60 consecutive GP missed to 41 consecutive GP missed, and the game length for IR, LTIR, conditioning loans, LTI conditioning loans, waivers, and emergency recalls will not be prorated aka the lengths will remain the same as prior seasons.

So that is a lot of information and you might be asking how does this affect the Ducks, well that is why I am here. Let’s break it down:

Updated Schedule and Realignment

The Ducks will be realigned into a division with the Sharks, Kings, Coyotes, Golden Knights, Avalanche, Wild, and Blues. Essentially you remove Vancouver, Edmonton, and Calgary, and replace them with the Avalanche, Wild, and Blues. This is a huge hit to the Duck’s chances of making the playoffs. The Oilers, Canucks, and Flames were all 15th or lower in xGF% last season, with the Oilers and Canucks being in the 20s, while the Avalanche, WIld, and Blues were all 14th or higher, with the Wild and Avalanche being top 10 in the league. On top of that, with the season being purely divisional and the playoffs being divisional, the Ducks will be playing each team in their division 8 times and will be only fighting those teams for a playoff spot. To put it simply this makes the path to the playoffs extremely tough.

If you are looking for a positive view of this though, the Ducks team will have to earn a playoff spot this year if they were to make it, which will be good for the development of the roster. This will not be a season where the team can make it purely on smoke and mirrors. They will be playing 3 of the best teams in the league last year and the cup champ from two years ago in 32 out of the 56 games this season. There is no hiding in this schedule and it will be time to see what the kids and the current core can do. If they do not succeed then hopefully management knows it is finally time to make drastic moves.

Training Camp

The training camp roster size will keep teams from inviting guys that have no chance of making the roster this season, like Jacob Perreault and Brayden Tracey, and keep the roster to guys primarily making the NHL or AHL rosters.

ELC Slide

Trevor Zegras will probably get some game time with the Ducks this season, so keep an eye on when or if he hits the 7 game mark. If he plays in 7 games, this year will count as a year off his ELC and he will be an RFA in the summer of 2023. If he primarily plays on the Gulls (AHL games do not count toward this total) and does not hit the 7 game mark with the Ducks, then this year will slide and he won’t be an RFA until the summer of 2024.

Taxi Squad and Cap Implications

The taxi squad will be something you hear a lot about this season, both from mainstream media types and bloggers like us. The taxi squad will be at a minimum of 4 players and a maximum of 6 players. A player will require waivers in order to go to the taxi squad unless they are waiver exempt. Players on the taxi squad will be able to practice with the NHL team, join in on team activities, and travel with the team. Traveling with the team is not a requirement though. Taxi squad players will not be able to practice or play in AHL games while on the taxi squad. A team may request that a player on the taxi squad does not count towards the 6 max total if they are deemed unfit to play. The cap hit for players on the taxi squad will be similar to if they were in the AHL, aka any player making under $1,075,000 will have no residual cap hit, and any player making more than that will have a residual cap hit of their AAV minus $1,075,000. The final important piece of information for the taxi squads is that players on two-way deals will make their minor league salary when on the Taxi squad.

So with all of that being said, the Ducks have their out when it comes to the salary cap, without having to use LTIR. Per CapFriendly the Ducks currently have a cap hit of $82.5 million with the salary cap being set at $81.5 million. The caveat is that cap hit is for a 22 man roster. The Ducks will be able to take advantage of there being a taxi squad and have a 20 man roster on most nongame days with a 6 man taxi squad. Cap accrues daily so every day you can have a lower cap hit helps. Also with the player’s cap hits not being prorated, and the season being shorter, every day becomes more important.

The amount of days in the season is typically 186 days while this season that number is 116 days. For a player with a league-minimum $700k cap hit, this means their daily accrual rate changes from $3,763 per day on the roster to $6,035 per day, which is a 40% increase in cap hit per day or on the flip cap hit saved per day that that player is not on the roster.

Players that are waiver exempt will likely be the players that see the most time spent moving from the taxi squad to the roster because the club can move them back and forth with no repercussions. The waiver exempt players for the Ducks that could be in this mix are Max Jones, Sam Steel, Max Comtois, Trevor Zegras, Kodie Curran, Isac Lundestrom, and Josh Mahura. There could be others, but these are the ones I see most likely to be in that group.

In addition to this, guys that are unlikely to get a lot of NHL time could be put on waivers and spend most of the season on the taxi squad. Once a player clears waivers, they have to play in 10 NHL games or be on the active roster for 30 days prior to requiring waivers again. So theoretically a guy like Jani Hakanpaa for instance could clear waivers to start the season, then ben sent to the taxi squad, come off the taxi squad to play in a game every once in a while then be put back on the taxi squad without requiring waivers again in the season. The guys I see as potential players for the Ducks to do this on are Jani Hakanpaa, Welinski, Guhle, De Leo, and Agozzino.

There is a way for the Ducks to stay cap compliant without needing to utilize LTIR, they will just need to be creative with their use of the taxi squad.

Goalie Requirements

Every NHL team will be required to carry three goalies this season, either three on the active roster or two on the active roster and one on the taxi squad. I highly doubt the Ducks will want either Dostal or Eriksson Ek to become a practice goalie this season, so this to me means the Ducks will either sign Ryan Miller or some other available goalie and their three goalies will be John Gibson, Anthony Stolarz, and Ryan Miller/Unsigned goalie.

Expansion Draft

As expected, the league is adjusting the exposure requirement rules from 40 games in the season prior to the draft or 70 games in the prior two seasons to 27 games in the season prior to the draft or 54 games in the prior two seasons. This means that Jacob Larsson can fill the expansion draft requirement on defense without playing a game this season, and Nicolas Deslauriers and Derek Grant can fill the role for forwards without playing a game this season.

All information from CapFriendly, CapFriendly’s twitter, the Ducks website, and Elliotte Friedman.