How will the Anaheim Ducks handle the Expansion Draft?
With the season over for the Anaheim Ducks, it is time to start jumping into some major offseason topics. The most urgent and pressing one is the Seattle expansion draft, which is set to take place on Wednesday, July 21st. The Ducks are in a bit of a precarious position when it comes to the expansion draft due to having a lot of younger players that have played enough in the NHL to be eligible to be drafted. To make things simple here are the rules for the expansion draft for current NHL teams:
The Ducks can protect either 7 forwards, 3 defenseman, and 1 goalie or 8 skaters and 1 goalie.
All first and second year pros are exempt from the expansion draft. A year of professional experience is defined as 11 games or more in the NHL for players 18 or 19 years of age or 1 or more NHL games, AHL, or European professional league games for a player who turned 20 prior to December 31, 2020. The player also has to be signed to a NHL contract for that year to count.
Any player with a No Movement Clause that continues into the 21-22 season must be protected.
2 forwards that played at least 27 games in the 20-21 season or 54 games over the 19-20 and 20-21 season combined and are signed for the 21-22 season must be exposed. This is known as the 27/54 rule.
1 defenseman that played at least 27 games in the 20-21 season or 54 games over the 19-20 and 20-21 season combined and are signed for the 21-22 season must be exposed. This is known as the 27/54 rule.
1 goalie who is under contract for the 21-22 season or is going to be an RFA must be exposed.
Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed the previous 60+ games due to an injury, do not meet the criteria set forth by the league in respect to the minimum exposure requirement for players, and in certain cases these players may even be deemed as exempt from the Expansion Draft selection process.
All of the above information is courtesy of capfriendly and their expansion draft tool. With all of these rules being set, the following are the list of eligible and exempt players for the expansion draft along with if they meet the 27/54 criteria. Please note that Ryan Getzlaf does not have to be protected due to him being a UFA in the summer and Ryan Kesler does not have to be protected due to his injury and his NMC changing to an NTC next season. No other Ducks have NMCs.
Expansion Draft Eligible Forwards (27/54 Rule Y/N) UFA/RFA if Applicable
Ryan Getzlaf (N) Pending UFA
Ryan Kesler (N)
Adam Henrique (Y)
Jakob Silfverberg (Y)
David Backes (N) Pending UFA
Rickard Rakell (Y)
Danton Heinen (N) Pending RFA
Sonny Milano (Y)
Derek Grant (Y)
Troy Terry (Y)
Carter Rowney (N) Pending UFA
Nicolas Deslauriers (Y)
Isac Lundestrom (N) Pending RFA
Max Jones (N) Pending RFA
Sam Steel (N) Pending RFA
Vinni Lettieri (N) Pending UFA
Chase De Leo (N) Pending UFA
Andrew Agozzino (N) Pending UFA
Sam Carrick (N) Pending UFA
Andrew Poturalski (N) Pending UFA
Alexander Volkov (N) Pending RFA
Expansion Draft Eligible Defensemen (27/54 Rule Y/N) UFA/RFA if Applicable
Cam Fowler (Y)
Hampus Lindholm (Y)
Josh Manson (Y)
Kevin Shattenkirk (Y)
Haydn Fleury (Y)
Jacob Larsson (Y)
Brendan Guhle (N)
Andy Welinski (N) Pending RFA
Josh Mahura (N) Pending RFA
Trevor Carrick (N) Pending UFA
Expansion Draft Eligible Goalies
John Gibson
Anthony Stolarz
Expansion Draft Exempt Players
Maxime Comtois
Trevor Zegras
Jamie Drysdale
Bryce Kindopp
Jacob Perreault
Brayden Tracey
Benoit-Olivier Groulx
Jack Badini
Maxim Golod
Nick Sorensen
Kodie Curran
Simon Benoit
Hunter Drew
Axel Andersson
Lukas Dostal
Roman Durny
Olle Eriksson-Ek
The first part of the expansion draft process is identifying which players will fulfill the 27/54 role for the Ducks. My prediction for the forwards: both Derek Grant and Nicolas Deslauriers will be left exposed and fulfill the 2 forward requirements for the Ducks. For the defense, I would expect Kevin Shattenkirk and Jacob Larsson to both be left exposed, which means one of those two would fulfill the defenseman requirement for the Ducks. For goaltending, Stolarz will fulfill the expansion draft exposure requirement for the Ducks.
Then the Ducks will have a difficult decision to make in the expansion draft of whether they want to go the 7F/3D route resulting in 10 skaters being protected or the 8 skater route that will allow them to protect more defensemen.
Protect or Expose
Ryan Getzlaf - The Ducks should leave Getzlaf exposed. Getzlaf is going to be a UFA so even if the Ducks plan to bring him back next season, they should leave him exposed and then sign him after the expansion draft. The same logic applies to all UFAs not listed below.
Adam Henrique - The Ducks should leave Henrique exposed. Henrique was placed on and cleared waivers earlier this season due to his contract running through the 23-24 season with an AAV of 5.825 million dollars. It is unlikely that Seattle would take him for that same reason.
Jakob Silfverberg - The Ducks should leave Silfverberg exposed. Like Henrique, Silfverberg’s contract runs through the 23-24 season with an AAV of 5.25 million dollars. Even though Silfverberg is still a solid NHL player, that contract is one that Seattle would be unlikely to take on.
Rickard Rakell - The Ducks should protect Rakell. Even though Rakell has struggled to put the puck in the back of the net over the past two seasons, it is not for a lack of trying. He has led the Ducks in shots on goal in each of those seasons and eventually he will see his shooting percentage tick up. That is not the reason, though, the Ducks should be protecting Rakel; he is one of the few prime-aged forwards who holds trade value. The Ducks could receive a decent return for him either in the off-season or at the trade deadline, so losing him for nothing to Seattle would be awful asset management.
Danton Heinen - The Ducks could go either way on Heinen. On one hand, Heinen is 25 and has been at replacement level for the Ducks, which is an improvement over the current players within the bottom six. On the other hand, Heinen was only at replacement level over the past year and is in his prime production year. I wouldn’t go out of my way to protect him but if there was an open forward slot, I would protect him over other Duck forwards.
Sonny Milano - The Ducks could go either way on Milano. Milano missed the majority of the 20-21 campaign with concussion issues, but when he did play he provided a positive impact on the ice product from both an offensive and defensive perspective. He is 25 years old, so like Heinen he is in his prime production years. The big question surrounding Milano is how much of an impact will his concussion this past season impact him moving forward. If the Ducks had certainty that he will be ready to go next season with no complications, then I would try and protect him, but that is a big if.
Derek Grant - The Ducks should leave Grant exposed. Grant was the worst Ducks skater last season, and I really do not think it is close. There is no argument to protect Grant.
Troy Terry - The Ducks should protect Troy Terry. Terry led all Ducks forwards that played more than 10 games in xGF% and was one of the best defensive forwards for the team last season. Additionally, he started to show his ability in the transition game that could benefit the Ducks long term offensively. He should be a solid top-six option for the franchise moving forward and should be protected.
Nicolas Deslauriers - The Ducks should leave Deslauriers exposed. Nicolas Deslauriers was the Ducks second-worst skater last season and just like Grant, there is no argument that can be made to protect him.
Isac Lundestrom - The Ducks should protect Isac Lundestrom. Isac Lundestrom took a step forward defensively this season as a 21-year-old and should become a quality third-line center for the franchise in the future. If the Ducks had more high-quality options eligible for the expansion draft, I would be ok with exposing Lundestrom due to that being his ceiling, but that is not the case.
Max Jones - The Ducks could go either way on Max Jones. The former first-round pick has yet to take a massive step that shows he can make an impact at the NHL level. He seems like he will become the definition of a replacement-level player, which is not necessarily a bad thing. The question the Ducks need to ask themselves is whether they want to use a protection slot on a player like that. See below for his player card from this past season from Jfresh.
Sam Steel - The Ducks could go either way on Steel. Steel took a pretty massive step back this season, to the point where he became a healthy scratch for stretches. The numbers do back this up also, see below for his player card from this past season from Jfresh. Having said that, he is a former first-round pick that could develop into a middle-six center, but the time is ticking due to him being 23. The Ducks will need to decide quickly where they are at with Steel.
Alexander Volkov - The Ducks should leave Volkov exposed. Volkov, after getting an increase in minutes once he was traded to the Ducks, slowly saw his role get diminished to the point where he was a healthy scratch by the end of the season. He is not going to be a difference-maker.
Cam Fowler - The Ducks most likely will protect Fowler, but they should think about exposing him. Fowler is the interesting player for me when it comes to the expansion draft. He was the Ducks’ best defenseman this past season and a case could be made for him being the best player for the Ducks, which in theory means he should be an easy protect. Not so fast. Fowler is owed $6,500,000 a year over the next 5 seasons, which is until he is 34 years old, and has a modified NTC that allows him to submit a list of 4 teams he would accept a trade to. For those that don’t know Seattle has compiled a robust analytics department, which makes it extremely unlikely that they would want to take on a player who is going to be paid a solid chunk of change into his mid-30s and even if they did this would free up valuable cap space for the Ducks long term. If I were running the team, I would expose Cam, but I am not sure the Ducks would go this route.
Hampus Lindholm - The Ducks will protect Lindholm. Lindholm, when he played, was the Ducks’ best player this season. The issue is that injuries derailed his season with him only having played in 18 games for the team. In addition to him being a great player, he is only under contract for one more season, so losing him to Seattle for nothing would be a very tough pill to swallow when the team could get a pretty penny for him on the Trade Market if they decided to shop him.
Josh Manson - The Ducks will protect Manson. Josh Manson’s name appeared on a lot of trade bait boards this past deadline due to his age and contract status — he becomes a UFA in the summer of 22 — but was not moved due to no team meeting the Ducks high asking price. If the Ducks were thinking about exposing Manson, then they would have moved him for the best offer at the deadline instead of losing him for nothing to Seattle. That is why I am very confident that he will be protected.
Kevin Shattenkirk - The Ducks should expose Shattenkirk. I have been one of Shattenkirk’s biggest defenders this past season, but he should not be protected. Not only does he meet the expansion draft exposure requirement for the team, but he is also 32 years old making him not of importance to the future of the franchise.
Haydn Fleury - The Ducks could go either way on Fleury. On one hand, the Ducks just traded for Haydn Fleury so they most likely will want to protect him, and on the other hand, they only gave up Hakanpaa and a 6th round pick. In a small sample size with the Ducks, Fleury showed that he was solid enough in his own end but lacked the ability to drive play offensively and at 24 years of age he does not have a whole lot of growth left in his game. I see him as a solid 4th defenseman on most teams.
Jacob Larsson - The Ducks should expose Larsson. Jacob Larsson is not an NHL quality defenseman and should be treated as such when it comes to the expansion draft.
Brendan Guhle - The Ducks should expose Guhle. He was placed on waivers this past season and no one claimed him. That reveals how far his stock has fallen within and outside of the Ducks organization.
Josh Mahura - The Ducks could go either way on Mahura. He should provide one of the tougher decisions for the Ducks franchise. Mahura is 23 years old, so he will be in his prime scoring seasons in a few years, but he has yet to make enough of an impact at the NHL level to lock in a spot on the roster. He has shown flashes though in the games that he has played of being able to become a top 4 defenseman in the NHL that could provide some offense from the blueline. I do want to note that it would be tough to lose Mahura to Seattle, the comparison I am seeing between him and Theodore is off. Mahura does not have even close to the same ceiling as Theodore did at the time of the Vegas expansion draft.
John Gibson - The Ducks will protect Gibson, do I really need to explain? No, I don’t.
Anthony Stolarz - The Ducks will expose Anthony Stolarz. Even though Stolarz had a solid run with the Ducks this year, he is not John Gibson so he won’t be protected.
With all of that being said, here are my personal protection lists if I were to go with the 7/3/1 and then the 8 skater options:
7/3/1 Option
Forwards: Rakell, Terry, Lundestrom, Jones, Steel, Heinen, Milano
Defenseman: Lindholm, Manson, Fleury or Mahura
Goalie: Gibson
The logic behind going with the 7/3/1 route is that you can protect more skaters overall. As you can see the Ducks would be able to protect basically every younger forward on the roster with this set up and would only have the potential to lose guys like Grant, Deslauriers, Silfverberg, or Henrique from the forward group.
The trade-off to this route is that you can only protect 3 defensemen. I would be willing to take the risk of exposing Fowler to Seattle understanding that due to his contract, they most likely will pass on him, and if they do end up taking him, I can then utilize that cap space to make a bigger trade or pay Lindholm. The big question though is do you protect Mahura or Fleury? Mahura is two years younger and has potentially more offensive upside than Fleury, but Fleury is more of a proven commodity that will provide the Ducks a solid top 4 option for another 4 years or so. Personally, I would protect Mahura over Fleury but either one is a solid choice.
8 Skater Option
Skaters: Rakell, Terry, Lundestrom, Steel/Jones, Lindholm, Manson, Fleury, Mahura
Goalie: John Gibson
With the 8 skater route, the Ducks will only be able to protect at maximum 4 forwards, but that might not be a bad trade-off if they can then protect all four of Manson, Lindholm, Fleury, and Mahura. I am still leaving Fowler exposed because of his contract. The Ducks will most likely lose one of Jones or Steel in this situation, but as discussed earlier neither of them have taken steps to where I feel like I need to protect them.
Those are my personal protection lists, but the important thing is trying to get into the mind of Bob Murray and figuring out what he would do.
Expected Protection List
Skaters: Rakell, Terry, Lundestrom, Steel, Lindholm, Manson, Fleury, Fowler
Goalie: Gibson
Even though I personally would take the risk in exposing Fowler, Murray, like most GMs in the NHL, is typically risk-averse. He would not want to lose Fowler to Seattle for nothing even if it freed up a significant portion of cap space in the coming years, so I am pretty confident that Fowler will be protected.
Additionally, I think he will protect Fleury over Mahura due to him just having traded for Fleury and Mahura struggling to get game action. He will also protect Steel over Jones due to Steel playing a more premium position than Jones.
With this protection list, I would envision either Max Jones or Josh Mahura moving to the pacific northwest next season to don the Kraken crest unless Murray decides to make a side deal with Seattle as he did with Vegas.