How much could the Ducks get for their pending free agents?
One of the biggest questions surrounding the Ducks organization until the March 21st trade deadline is what should the Ducks do with their pending UFAs. It gets asked on nearly every Crash The Pond Podcast, I get asked it on Twitter nearly every day, and it is a constant discussion in the Crash The Pond Patreon discord (shout out to all the wonderful people in there. Please consider supporting our Patreon).
One of the most important things when it comes to being able to answer that question is understanding the value each player could bring in a trade, and the best way to understand trade value is to take a look at prior trades for comparable players, especially when it comes to trading rentals. The value of rentals appeared to go up last season due to the salary cap remaining flat and so many of the contending teams being tight to the salary cap. The comparable deals might not be perfect comparisons for each player, but they give us some insight into how each player could be valued around the league in a deal. In essence, these deals act as a baseline. Let’s start with the most high profile UFA for the Ducks:
Hampus Lindholm
21-22 box score stats: 41 GP, 5G, 11A,16 Pts, 22:48 ATOI
21-22 shot-based metrics: 2.38 xGF/60 (6th for defensemen on the Ducks), 2.62 xGA/60 (4th for defensemen on the Ducks)
Comparable Trades:
Seth Jones, a 2021 1st round pick (32nd overall), and a 2022 6th round pick for Adam Boqvist, a 2021 1st round pick (12th overall), 2021 2nd round pick, and a 2022 lottery-protected 1st round pick.
This was a deal made at the draft when Jones had one year left on his deal, and Jones signed an extension right after the trade was made. While this trade isn’t the best comparable due to the extension, it does help set the market value for a defenseman. This is purely my speculation, but if the extension was not there, the 2021 pick swap probably does not happen and the 2nd round pick is likely removed from the deal, leaving the deal as Jones for Boqvist and a 1st.
Ryan McDonagh and JT Miller for Vladislav Namestnikov, Brett Howden, Libor Hajek, a 2018 1st round pick, and a conditional 2019 2nd round pick.
This deal was made at the deadline when McDonagh had a year and a half left on his deal, so it was not a pure rental. Like the Jones deal, this is not a perfect comparison due to the contract status, and, in this case, the inclusion of JT Miller in the deal. But I think it establishes that for a higher profile defenseman, the price should be a 1st and a prospect at least.
David Savard (50% retained salary) for a 2021 1st round pick and a 2022 3rd round pick (Detroit retained an additional half of Savard’s salary and sent Brian Lashoff to Tampa Bay. In return they received a 4th round pick).
This deal was made at the deadline and Savard was a rental. To me, this is the most important deal of the three comparables. Savard was being acquired to be a third-pairing defenseman for the Lightning and he was able to get the Blue Jackets a 1st and a 3rd with salary retention. The Ducks are in a position to easily retain salary, like the Blue Jackets did, to increase their return.
Additionally, whatever John Klingberg nets the Stars (if a deal happens there) will definitely set the market value for Lindholm. They are different types of defensemen, but both are higher-profile rentals. The return could be a 1st, a prospect, and maybe an additional pick for Klingberg per Pierre Lebrun.
Verdict: The Ducks should be looking to get a 1st round pick, a good prospect, and a 2nd-4th round pick for Lindholm if they retain salary. If I was Solomon, I would try and upgrade the quality of the prospect over the additional pick due to the current trajectory of the team
Rickard Rakell
21-22 box score: 34 GP, 8G,10A, 18 Pts, 18:38 ATOI
21-22 shot-based metrics: 2.71 xGF/60 (5th for forwards on the Ducks), 2.63 xGA/60 (12th for forwards on the Ducks), 73 SOG (1st for forwards on the Ducks), 7.59 ixG (2nd for forwards on the Ducks)
Comparable Trades:
Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac (both at 50% retained cap hit) for AJ Greer, Mason Jobst, a 2021 1st round pick, and a 2022 4th round pick.
This deal was made at the deadline and Palmieri was a pure rental. Greer and Jobst were throw-ins so they can be ignored, and a lot of the reporting at the time was that Palmieri would net the Devils a 1st round pick. Based on that, I am going to assume that this deal at its core was Zajac for a 4th and Palmieri for a 1st. Palmieri at the time of the trade had 8 goals and 9 assists in 34 games, so very similar statistics to Rakell. If Rakell can go on a scoring bender prior to the deadline, he might be able to fetch more than a 1st, but most likely this sets the return as a 1st with salary retention.
Tyler Toffoli for Tim Schaller, Tyler Madden, and a 2020 2nd round pick.
This deal was made at the deadline and Toffoli was a pure rental. At the time of the deal, Toffoli had 18 goals 16 assists for 34 points in 58 games. This is 0.58 points per game pace, while Rakell is currently on a 0.53 points per game pace. Tyler Madden was a very good prospect at the time of this deal and that could be a good indication of the level of prospect the Ducks could get for Rakell if they went that route instead of asking for a pick.
Nick Foligno (50% retained cap hit) and Stefan Noesen for a 2021 1st round pick and a 2022 4th round pick (San Jose retained an additional half of Foligno’s salary and in return, they received a 4th round pick).
This deal was made at the deadline and Foligno was a pure rental. Foligno is a bit of a stretch for a comparable because the Maple Leafs acquired him for his “intangibles” along with his on-ice play, and Rakell does not have that same reputation. Having said that, this still gives us insight into the market value for rental wingers.
Verdict: The Ducks should be able to either get a good prospect or a 1st round pick for Rakell if he stays on his current pace. If he goes on a scoring bender, that return could get a bit sweeter with an additional draft pick.
Josh Manson
21-22 box score: 41 GP, 3G, 3A, 6 Pts 20:07 ATOI
21-22 Shot based metrics: 2.39 xGF/60 (5th for defensemen on the Ducks), 2.43 xGA/60 (2nd for defensemen on the Ducks)
David Savard (50% retained salary) for a 2021 1st round pick and a 2022 3rd round pick (Detroit retained an additional half of Savard’s salary and sent Brian Lashoff to Tampa Bay. In return they received a 4th round pick).
This deal was made at the deadline and Savard was a rental. As with Lindholm, this deal is the most important one. Both Manson and Savard are right-handed defensemen and have similar reputations. If Savard was able to get the Blue Jackets a 1st round pick, then the Ducks should be able to get a similar return for Manson.
Verdict: The Ducks with salary retention should get a 1st for Manson or a good prospect for him.
If the Ducks end up moving all three of their higher-profile UFAs, they enter the offseason with at least one more first-round pick along with some good prospects to add to the system. They might even be able to use these assets to get the big fish at the deadline in Jacob Chychrun. Regardless, this deadline will be an exciting time for Ducks fans to see how the future will look.
All box score stats per Hockey-Reference and all shot metrics per Evolving-Hockey.