Ducks Acquire Alexander Volkov from Tampa
The Ducks have traded Antoine Morand and a Conditional 2023 7th round pick for Alexander Volkov per the Anaheim Ducks. The condition on the pick is if the Ducks 7th round pick in 2023 is unavailable due to the conditions of a previous trade, the Lightning will receive Anaheim’s 7th round pick in 2024.:
The 23-year-old, 6’1” tall 194 lb, Russian winger was the 2nd round pick, 48th overall, of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2017 NHL Draft. It is important to note that he was drafted in his final year of draft eligibility as a 20-year-old. He came over to North America after that draft and instantly found some success for the Syracuse Crunch, putting up 45 points in 75 games, but that production has not translated to the NHL level yet.
As can be seen in the image above from Elite Prospects he has only tallied 6 NHL points in 28 games for the Tampa Bay Lightning in the past two seasons. The Lightning are a deep team though, so finding minutes can be a tough task, which is where looking at some underlying numbers along with video is important. The following is his RAPM chart which isolates individual player impact from Evolving Hockey along with his RAPM card from Jfresh hockey.
It is important to note that the above data comes from a relatively small sample size, so it is possible for Volkov to be a better player than the data shows, but the early returns on the isolated impact are not fantastic.
Evolving-Hockey’s model shows that he is below replacement level at generating goals for, shot volume for, shot quality for, and limiting shot quality against, while he is slightly above replacement level in limiting shot quantity against.
Jfresh’s card, which utilizes a different RAPM model created by Top Down hockey, shows what percentile he is in across the NHL in that category. Looking at two separate models is important, especially in smaller sample sizes, to gauge what type of player he is. From this card, you can see that Volkov typically is put out against weaker opponents with weaker teammates, and has only found some success in the goal scoring department. It appears as if that is luck-driven due to an unsustainably high shooting percentage, which is backed up by him shooting 16.7% on the season.
Even by more standard advanced metrics, like CF% and xGF% at 5v5, he looks underwhelming, posting a 41.27 CF% and a 46.49 xGF%. The only thing he is on the positive side on is GF% at 59.66%, but with a 104 5v5 PDO along with his CF % and xGF%, we can draw the conclusion that the elevated GF% is not sustainable.
Volkov is not waiver exempt anymore either, so this was a move made for the Ducks roster and not the Gulls.
For some clips of Volkov’s game, check out Felix’s videos below:
The Ducks are giving up Antoine Morand as the main piece of the move, who they selected with their 2nd round pick, 60th overall, in the 2017 draft (12 picks after the Lightning selected Volkov). The 22-year-old is currently in his second campaign with the Gulls and has scored 22 points in 74 games over the span of those two seasons and it did not seem like he would get a shot with the Ducks any time soon.
My overall verdict on the trade is that the Ducks are giving up someone that was not going to make an impact on the Ducks lineup anytime soon along with a 7th round pick down the line for someone that looks like an NHLer right now. He does not appear to be a great NHLer but he is most likely an upgrade on Nicolas Deslauriers, Derek Grant, and Sam Steel.
The Ducks get better on the ice as a result of this deal and potentially better long term also, but the impact is marginal.