Draft Profile: Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson
Jake Sanderson and Tim Stutzle do not currently project to be available at number six for Anaheim. As the last three decades-plus of National Hockey League drafts have shown, however, weird things can happen, and a team positioned like the Ducks has to be prepared for any given player to slide. With murmurs that the Detroit Red Wings could select goaltender Yaroslav Askarov at four, and the Los Angeles Kings keying in on Quinton Byfield at two, the table is being quietly set for one of Sanderson or Stutzle to potentially fall to six. Should Anaheim be interested in either player, though?
The Strengths
Stutzle presents an intriguing blend of talent that the Ducks currently do not have, both on their active roster or in their prospect pool. Yes, Trevor Zegras is a fantastic play-maker and projects as a top-six forward, but his skating isn’t anywhere close to the mesmerizing stride of the German forward.
The Mannheim attacker can embarrass defenders in transition, knowing how to approach from a threatening angle while using cross-overs to build speed. There’s an argument to be made that he is the best transition player in this draft class. In the offensive zone, his dual-threat ability makes him a menace on the power play, using both his dangerous shot and vision to dice up penalty-killing units. Such a dynamic offensive presence could potentially electrify both the Anaheim lineup and fanbase.
Sanderson won’t dazzle in nearly the same way, but he brings quiet excellence to the back-end that would make him a welcome addition to Anaheim’s blueline. An elite four-direction skater, the U.S National Team Development Program product can quickly snuff out oncoming rushes thanks to his excellent backward stride and gap control. At six-foot-one and 185 pounds, Sanderson could become an even more imposing physical presence if he fills out his frame, but his physicality is already nearly beyond reproach.
Offensively, Sanderson brings an intriguing skill set to compliment his defensive game. He’s capable of threatening both off the rush and in the cycle game, possessing strong vision and passing execution. His shot isn’t elite, but he can get it through crowds from the point with accuracy. For a Ducks-centric comparison, Sanderson could very well become a deluxe version of Hampus Lindholm.
The Drawbacks
To remain on the Sanderson thread, there really aren’t any glaring holes in his game. In fact, he’s a very safe pick and has a game that projects well to the pro level. That, in and of itself, could be the issue with selecting him at number six. Anaheim badly needs offensive talent, and although Sanderson certainly has a very respectable offensive dimension to his game, he just wouldn’t be the type of home-run swing that the Ducks could benefit from. Outside of that, though, there’s really not much to nitpick here.
The list of grievances is a bit different for Stutzle. Yes, he reached tremendous heights against men in a professional league, but it was the DEL, which isn’t on par with the likes of the SHL, Liiga, or KHL. That uncertainty makes it difficult to project how Stutzle’s gifts will translate at the NHL level. It could very well take him some time to adapt to the North American game, and his body will need to fill out if he is to play center. The ceiling is obvious for Stutzle, but it could take some time to see it.
The Numbers
Byron Bader, the founder of Hockey Prospecting and recent guest on the Crash the Pond podcast, uses a statistic called NHLe, which tries to project how production in a particular league will translate to the NHL level. He then uses that to project the likelihood of a player becoming a star in the NHL, which he defines as 0.7+ points per game
According to that model, Tim Stutzle has a 27% star probability, while Sanderson sits at 9%. Keep in mind, a star here is defined as a point producer. So while Sanderson can become an elite top-four defenseman, he doesn’t neatly fit the definition used here, which further illustrates the drawbacks we discussed earlier. As for Stutzle, some might be surprised to see him at 27%, which is “only” the eighth highest probability in the draft class. Again, that underscores the lower equivalency that the DEL provides when projecting NHL production.
Conclusion
Stutzle and Sanderson are polar opposites. While Stutzle provides the flashy, high-end forward that Anaheim has long needed, Sanderson brings a stabilizing presence to the blueline, much like Lindholm has done since entering the league. The former is a clear upside play, while the latter has that safe floor while maintaining an intriguing ceiling.
Both players would be positive additions to Anaheim’s prospect pool. Philosophically, I would usually always favor a player of Stutzle’s ilk. However, I’m just not so sold that he will fulfill his potential at the NHL level. I’d be happy to be wrong about that, as he is such an entertaining player to watch, but I just have this nagging doubt that I can’t shake.
Despite the fact that the Ducks really need offensive talent, they also need to capably defend, which they haven’t been able to do in recent years despite having the likes of Lindholm, Josh Manson, and Cam Fowler available to them. Even a coaching change away from the foibles of Randy Carlyle’s system did not yield a significant improvement in that regard. Sanderson would provide a major boost in that department, even if it takes him a bit of time to make the jump to the big club. If his offensive game can take another step forward, then Anaheim has a blueline rock to build around for years to come.