Draft Profile: Marco Rossi

Marco Rossi might not fit the traditional notion of a top-line center at first glance, but everything about the way he plays the game suggests that is exactly what he will become. At five-foot nine-inches, Rossi doesn’t have the imposing frame of a Quinton Byfield and may very well slide in the first round as a result. For the Anaheim Ducks at number six, that could turn into a blessing for a franchise in desperate need of a player like Rossi.

The Strengths

Hailing from Feldkirch, Austria, Rossi took an uncommon path to the NHL by rising up through the Austrian and Swiss junior ranks before making his way to an excellent Ottawa 67’s program in the Ontario Hockey League. Despite his more unique developmental arc, Rossi could easily be mistaken for a traditional North American-type player in the way he approaches the game, something that surely must have initially piqued the interest of 67’s head coach Andre Tourigny.

Rossi is tenacious without the puck, using a blend of acute situational awareness and physical strength to win puck battles at a high rate. Both along the wall and in open ice, he can be trusted to hold up his end of the bargain defensively, a trait which should alleviate the concerns about his size. Of course, there are more tantalizing aspects to Rossi’s game, but it’s his motor and attention to detail that provides a foundation for his skills to flourish.

As a play-maker, the Austrian is among the elite of this draft class. His vision allows him to find seams nearly as soon as they materialize, and he exploits them before defenders can pick up on his intentions. Rossi has every type of pass in his arsenal: devastating cross-ice darts, clever drop-offs upon gaining the offensive zone, and everything in between. Thanks to a solid set of hands, he can also manipulate his opponents to create the seam he’s looking for. Although his hands won’t necessarily dazzle, he uses them deceptively and efficiently.

Some may view his shot as a weakness, but it seems to be more of a net neutral at worst. His wrist and snapshots are largely economical, as there is little movement for the amount of pop he gets on his release. It’s the opposite of an Auston Matthews shot, who will manipulate the release angle as he’s firing, and more like a Sidney Crosby, who uses the element of surprise to his advantage thanks to a quick snap. Rossi probably won’t be a sniper at the NHL level, but the shooting mechanics are there to at least be proficient.

Finally, skating is also a strength of Rossi’s. The burning straight-line speed of a Jean-Luc Foudy or Tim Stutzle certainly isn’t there, nor is the elegance of a Jamie Drysdale transition. However, he checks all of the boxes of a pro-level stride. He gets decent acceleration, and can really dig into both his inside and outside edge thanks to his strong lower body. That ability to pivot out of trouble, and into a scoring opportunity should serve Rossi well at the NHL level.

The Drawbacks

Although lack of size tends to be overblown, the refrain of “there aren’t many first-line five-foot nine centers in the NHL” is going to follow both Rossi and the team that drafts him all throughout his career. Some observers even have him eventually moving to the wing in order to become a first-line player

Secondly, there’s some concern surrounding the validity of Rossi’s insane production at the OHL level. Older players tend to dominate in junior hockey, which leads some in the industry to put an asterisk next to his point totals. Also, the lack of one clearly identifiable game-breaking talent could be seen as a weakness. Drysdale has the skating, Alexander Holtz has the shot, Byfield has the size, etc. Rossi is more of a mosaic of adept attributes but doesn’t have that one eye-popping calling card that would elevate him in the eyes of the broader public.

The Numbers

The case for Rossi at number six really takes flight here. First, the boxscore numbers: 56 games played, 39 goals, 81 assists, for 120 points this past season for Ottawa which led the entire Canadian hockey league. In his “draft minus one” year when he first arrived from Europe, Rossi notched an impressive 65 points in 53 games. Overall, a nearly peerless boxscore resume, but it gets even more interesting.

Byron Bader, the founder of Hockey Prospecting/former NHL consultant and recent guest on the Crash the Pond podcast, uses a statistic called NHLe, which tries to project how production in a particular league will translate to the NHL level. He then uses that to project the likelihood of a player becoming a star in the NHL, which he defines as 0.7+ points per game. Currently, Rossi sits at a whopping 82% star probability in Bader’s model, which has him at the top of the entire draft class. 

The model goes all the way back to 1979, which allows current prospects and their respective star probabilities to be compared to past drafts. For Rossi, here are the top 5 closest draft year comparables: Eric Lindros, Dale Hawerchuk, Alexandre Daigle, Pierre Turgeon, and Daniel Briere. With the exception of Daigle, everyone on that list became a star at the NHL level. Of course, I’m not sure if even Bader would necessarily view Rossi as the best prospect in this class like his model does, but the statistical case for him as a potential NHL star is simply undeniable.

Conclusion

Should Rossi be available at six for Anaheim, the Ducks needn’t look elsewhere for a second. Not only would he be the best player available, but he also legitimately fills a need for the franchise. Rossi provides the kind of elite play-driving forward that the Ducks haven’t produced in years, and could possibly give Anaheim a potent 1-2 punch up the middle with Trevor Zegras in a not-so-distant future. He has nothing left to prove in junior, and would almost surely make the jump to the NHL right away. Despite his size, Rossi could end up having a massive influence on the Ducks’ future success.