Crash The Pond Second Round Predictions
For the First Round, the standings for the guys are as follows:
Jake: 4 correct, 4 incorrect (3 series with the correct amount of games and winner)
Felix: 5 correct, 3 incorrect (2 series with the correct amount of games and winner)
CJ: 5 correct, 3 incorrect (1 series with the correct amount of games and winner)
CJ and Felix tied yet again, with Felix once again edging out CJ with the correct number of games. The cumulative standings are as follows:
Jake: 9 correct, 7 incorrect (4 series with the correct amount of games and winner)
Felix: 8 correct, 8 incorrect (4 series with the correct amount of games and winner)
CJ: 8 correct, 8 incorrect (1 series with the correct amount of games and winner)
It is very tight between all the guys as we move into the second round. Just like with the qualifying round and first round, we want to go on the record to try and prove who is the most accurate. There may or may not be a beer bet as well.
Jake Rudolph
Philadelphia vs New York Islanders - Islanders in 5 - The Flyers, even though they are the top seed for the playoffs, just have not impressed me so far. The Round Robin play was not exactly high intensity hockey, so I kinda throw out the results from that. So this is how I view this team, they were a middle of the pack team throughout the regular season that got hot before the pause. They benefited from being the team that cared about the Round Robin portion of the tournament, which resulted in them getting the top seed. I would call them a paper tiger but that is even giving them too much credit , due to them not even being a dominant team in the standings. They come into this series with a 46% xGF% and made it past Montreal mainly on the back of some unsustainably high shooting, a lack of shooting skill from Montreal, and great Carter Hart performances.
The Islanders on the other hand have been fairly dominant in the postseason so far, even if it is in boring fashion. The Islanders like the Flyers were middle of the pack throughout the season, but the difference in the way I view them, is their style of play suits a short series in the playoffs. They rely on limiting chances against more so than generating them for. They have been the best team in the playoffs at xGA/60 and I don’t view the Flyers as a team that can break that down.
I think the Islanders on the back of a tight defensive system and some high end scoring talent like Matt Barzal move on fairly easily.
Tampa Bay vs Boston - Tampa Bay in 6 - All things considered this should be the conference final. The Bruins and Lightning showed in their first round series that the round robin tournament really didn’t matter to the players. Both teams had questions being asked of them going into the first round and both teams answered them by winning their series in 5. I know it feels like forever ago, but these were the first and third place teams in the league and both teams added at the deadline to bolster their chances in the playoffs. It is a shame that this series is going to be in the 2nd round instead of the conference final due to the wonky round robin format. With all of that being said, I am going with Tampa mainly due to the fact that I think Tampa is a deeper team overall in my opinion and that Boston is going to have to rely on Jaro Halak in goal.
Colorado vs Dallas - Colorado in 6 - Colorado has been insanely good all playoffs. They are third in xGF% in the playoffs, and they were 8th in the league in xGF% over the course of the regular season. They showed against the Coyotes that not only do they have high end talent at both forward and defense but they have the depth also. In their last five games they have gotten 6 goals from the top line, 8 goals from the second line, 3 goals from the third line, and 2 goals from their fourth line, and they have gotten a goal from each D pairing.
Having said all of that Dallas has been above 50% xGF% throughout the playoffs and the regular season so they are no slouch. They have been getting goals from throughout their lineup, but the big difference is Colorado did it against a very hot Darcy Kuemper, while the Stars did it against a suspect Cam Talbot. In addition to that, in goal the Stars have some question marks over Bishop’s health, which means Anton Khudobin will shoulder the load. Khudobin has been solid but is prone to making a fatal error that leads to a goal.
All of that leads me to Colorado winning a very tight and entertaining series.
Vegas vs Vancouver - Vegas in 6 - Vegas was the best team in the regular season from an xGF% perspective and have followed that up by outperforming their results in the regular season. The caveat is they played a straight up bad Blackhawks team after the round robin format. My main concern is they did have some flaws exposed by the Blackhawks, one of them being neither goaltender were above what was expected from them, and the Blackhawks held their own in a game or two against Vegas. If Vegas were to play that similar way against a better team, like the Canucks, they might find themselves on the wrong end of some games.
The Canucks on the other hand upset the reigning Cup champions in what was a wild series. The Canucks took the early lead, then ran into some adversity after the Blues came back to tie the series at 2 and take a 3-1 lead in game 5. The Canucks in game 5 proved they were up to the task and came back to win the game 4-3 and then easily won game 6. The Canucks have not been a juggernaut at 5v5 like the Golden Knights, in fact they have been the opposite, being below 50% xGF% in both the regular season and playoffs, but they do have gamebreaking talent in Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, and they have had elite performances by Jacob Markstrom.
My head says Vegas takes this series in a runaway due to them being easily the better team, but my heart says to go with the Canucks because they are this fun and exciting team with some future stars. I am going to trust my head and go Vegas in 6.
Felix Sicard
Philadelphia vs New York Islanders - Islanders in 6 - Although the Flyers defeated the Canadiens in six games, they did not look particularly dominant in doing so. Montreal really controlled play in the final two games, and came up just short without their best forward in Brendan Gallagher in Game 6. Philadelphia was at their best when they gummed up the neutral zone and kept the Habs to the outside — much like the Islanders did against a lifeless Capitals team.
Philly’s power play, supposedly a strength, looked anemic against its first true test. The Islanders have been a great story so far, but it’s more than just hype. Anthony Beauvillier is playing the best hockey of his life, while Barry Trotz’s defensive structure made a loaded Washington roster look rather ordinary. The Flyers’ bandwagon screeches to a halt in this one, with the Isles moving on in grind-it-out affair.
Tampa Bay vs Boston - Boston in 7 - I agonized over this pick more than any pick I’ve had to make in our prediction series. Both squads are just so stacked at every position, while also boasting true top-tier talent to go with that depth. Boston has the best goal-scorer in the NHL healthy again in David Pastrnak, giving their forward core a much-needed jolt. Former Duck Ondrej Kase has helped elevate David Krejci’s line, while their blueline looks as solid as ever.
For Tampa, they exorcised their demons in round one against the Columbus Blue Jackets, but did so in less convincing fashion than the way the B’s dispatched Carolina. Without Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay will have to continue to rely on elevated contributions from the likes of Yanni Gourde. Even without Stamkos though, I think Tampa is the deeper forward group, but the Bruins hold the edge in elite talent thanks to their “Perfection Line”. This is splitting hairs to the highest degree, but my gut tells me Boston wins what should be a classic series, as much as it pains me to say it.
Colorado vs Dallas - Colorado in 6 - Dallas showed that they could get it done without their top guns in Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn having a huge impact on the series. Joe Pavelski enjoyed a renaissance in key moments, while Denis Gurianov announced himself to the hockey world with four goals in the clinching game. There’s a lot to like about Dallas — except for their matchup. The Avalanche annihilated the Coyotes in round one, with a combined 14-2 score in the final two games. Arizona isn’t anywhere close to the Stars’ level, but it shows just how dominant these Avs can be.
The Stars should prove to be a decent test for Colorado. Dallas’s blueline is far sturdier than Arizona’s, boasting stars in Miro Heiskanen and John Klingberg. This series could end up having some very close games, but the sheer firepower that the Avalanche can bring to the table — especially with Nazem Kadri playing the way he is — on any given night will simply be too much for Dallas to overcome.
Vegas vs Vancouver - Vegas in 6 - Let the record show that I was the only member of this panel that picked Vancouver to advance in round one. Their star power combined with a lackluster Blues’ team made for an all-too appetizing upset pick. The way Vancouver took it to St. Louis in the clinching game really was a statement: this team is ready to compete. Are they ready to defeat the class of the Western Conference in Vegas though? The answer here is a resounding no.
Much like their Eastern counterparts in Boston and Tampa, the Golden Knights boast superb positional depth. There really isn’t an Achilles heel on this team, and although the moribund Blackhawks made it somewhat interesting in round one, it still wasn’t enough. I expect more of the same here. Vancouver will put up a fight, where the likes of Jacob Markstrom, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, et al will make their mark, but they are up against a Vegas machine that will ultimately grind them into the ground.
CJ Woodling
Philadelphia vs New York Islanders - Islanders in 6 - The Flyers played like they deserved the number one seed in the round-robin tournament, showing both offensive prowess and the elusive goaltending they’ve been searching for. Last round, however, the Montreal Canadiens exposed weaknesses in their offensive scheme, effectively stifling their scoring for multiple games. It took Carter Hart bailing them out to get them to the next round.
In my estimation, the Islanders are basically a better version of the Canadiens: good goaltending and an offensive system that overwhelms opponents with shot attempts. Led in scoring by the surprise emergence of Anthony Beauvillier along with the dynamic Matt Barzal, I think the Isles have done enough to prove that they are not to be underestimated anymore.
Tampa Bay vs Boston - Boston in 7 - I agree with Jake. This should realistically be the Eastern Conference Final. Two of the best teams on the planet playing a fast-paced, modern game focused on getting quality shots. This series should be one of the highest-quality matchups we have seen in years.
This is why I think the difference in this series will come down to goaltending. With Tuukka Rask opting out, the Bruins will have Jaroslav Halak as their number one netminder while the Lightning will roll out Andrei Vasilevskiy.
I’ve made no secret of my view that Vasilevskiy is supremely overrated. I don’t think he’s a bad goaltender by any stretch of the imagination, but he is certainly not a top-five one. Halak, on the other hand, is not as good as Rask but is not far behind him. The numbers paint this picture pretty clearly. According to Evolving Hockey’s Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) metric this season:
Jaroslav Halak: 2.29 GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy: -8.29 GSAx
Bruins in seven.
Colorado vs Dallas - Colorado in 4 - I see no possible path to victory for the Dallas Stars here. With Ben Bishop still unavailable and their issues scoring consistently, there isn’t much to like here.
The Avalanche are monsters. Nathan MacKinnon is playing like the best on the planet right now. Maybe Khudobin steals a game but given Colorado’s 14 goals in their last two games of the Arizona Coyotes series, I wouldn’t count on it.
Vegas vs Vancouver - Vegas in 5 - This series is fairly lopsided as well in my opinion. But not quite as lopsided as Colorado vs. Dallas. The Vancouver Canucks have shown that they have a lot of exciting talent who can make you do a double-take as they skate by you on the way to a goal. Jacob Markstrom has also performed well, giving his team plenty of chances to win games.
That said, the Vegas Golden Knights are too stacked to give the Canucks a realistic chance. They have an overwhelming attack, the ability to run out Shea Theodore and Nate Schmidt for almost the entire game combined, and presumed new number one goaltender with Robin Lehner. Even if Lehner falters, Marc-Andre Fleury is a pretty damn good backup option.