Anaheim Ducks 2023-2024 Season Preview

The Anaheim Ducks are set to embark on their 30th Anniversary Season on Saturday, October 14, 2023, in Las Vegas, Nevada at the T-Mobile Arena against the defending Stanley Cup Champion Vegas Golden Knights. After a historically inept 2022-2023 campaign and a hectic offseason, the Ducks are ready to begin their 4th decade as an NHL franchise with a blossoming young prospect pool, a new first-time NHL head coach, and a lineup that was substantially bolstered during this summer’s free agency period.

Crash The Pond will look back at what went wrong for the Ducks last season, review their extremely active offseason, and preview the upcoming 2023-2024 season, which is rife with compelling storylines and plenty of potential intriguing developments on the ice.

2022-2023 Anaheim Ducks Season Review

Before we dive into this upcoming season, we must first recap and close the door on what was objectively the worst season in Ducks franchise history. During their 2022-2023 campaign, Anaheim finished with a 23-47-12 record (58 points; 8th in Pacific Division; 32nd in NHL), which is the 9th worst season based on points percentage by an NHL team since 2007-2008. They posted a league-worst 38.8% xGF and 40.8% CF at even strength (courtesy of Evolving Hockey), which were the worst and 2nd worst EV xGF% and CF% metrics for an NHL team since the 2007-2008 season.

Anaheim’s xGF (shown below for the entire 2022-2023 season, courtesy of MoneyPuck) was consistently below 50%. The below graph applies a 5-game moving average for xGF%; a game-by-game analysis shows that the Ducks only posted a 5v5 xGF above 50% in 11 of 82 games (13.4%).

This simple overview of key advanced on-ice metrics paints a harrowing picture of Anaheim’s historic ineptitude during the 2022-2023 season, which ended with the Ducks’ 5th consecutive missed playoff appearance (the longest such streak in franchise history). Undoubtedly, this contributed substantially to Ducks GM Pat Verbeek’s decision not to renew Dallas Eakins’ contract at the conclusion of last season.

2023 Offseason Review

The winds of change blew rapidly across Anaheim as the offseason officially began this past April. Here, we will highlight several major components of the Ducks’ offseason before delving into a preview of this upcoming season.

Cronin’s Big Break

After an extensive search, Pat Verbeek hired Greg Cronin as the 11th head coach in Anaheim Ducks franchise history on June 5th, 2023. Cronin joined the Ducks after serving as head coach of the Colorado Avalanche’s AHL team, the Colorado Eagles, for the past 5 seasons. Verbeek touted Cronin’s attention to detail and teaching as a primary driver behind his hiring, and stated in an official team press release:

"I felt we needed a teacher of the finer points of the game, and someone who has worked extensively over time with talented young players, helping them develop into successful NHL players. Greg has done all that and more, and we are excited to name him head coach of the Anaheim Ducks."

Cronin’s hiring is especially significant given the perceived systems, line optimization deficiencies, and personnel decisions that plagued the 2022-2023 Ducks team (lest we forget: Simon Benoit had Anaheim’s 3rd highest TOI last season). It will be very interesting to see the on-ice strategic adjustments and line combination changes that Cronin implements this season. In addition, Verbeek’s success or failure as Ducks GM will be heavily influenced by Cronin’s coaching aptitude and his ability to connect to and help develop Anaheim’s elite prospect pool.

Carlsson vs. Fantilli: Verbeek settles the Great Debate

With the Ducks’ head coaching vacancy finally filled, the collective eyes of Anaheim’s fanbase turned towards Nashville, Tennessee for the NHL Entry Draft, which took place from June 28-29, 2023. Although the Ducks lost the Connor Bedard Sweepstakes after the luck of the draw favored the Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim secured a wonderful consolation prize in picking #2, which ultimately boiled down to a decision between two extremely coveted forward prospects: Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli. Anaheim finally ended months of spirited debate amongst Ducks diehard fans by selecting Carlsson at #2 in the draft. Elite Prospects had Carlsson ranked as the #3 prospect in this year’s pool (behind Bedard and Fantilli), and lauded many facets of his on-ice potential:

“He’s the real deal. The total package. Whatever you look for in a draft prospect, Carlsson’s got it in spades. You could gather as much with a cursory glance at his Elite Prospects page, too. Carlsson finished fifth all-time in draft-year scoring in the SHL, one point behind Washington Capitals center Nicklas Bäckström, though they tied in per-game output. He was nearly a point a game with Sweden at the World Juniors. To cap it all off, Carlsson heeded his country’s call at the World Championship, even centering their top line at times. You don’t amass a list of accomplishments like that without the sort of skill, maturity, and physical build that Carlsson brings to the table.”

Unfortunately, Ducks fans will have to wait to watch Carlsson’s NHL debut, as he suffered a lower-body injury during practice a mere 8 days before Anaheim’s season opener and will start the season on Injured Reserve.

Free Agency Departures and Arrivals

Pat Verbeek was once again quite active during the free agency period this offseason, signing Alex Killorn (RW; previously played on Tampa Bay Lighting), Radko Gudas (D; previously played on Florida Panthers), and Alex Stalock (G; previously played on Chicago Blackhawks) to new contracts. In addition, Verbeek traded a 2025 4th-round pick to the Buffalo Sabres in exchange for defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin. Ducks fans also witnessed the departure of 7 players who were initially brought into the organization by former Ducks GM Bob Murray, including Max Comtois (LW). In cycling out these depth pieces, Verbeek deepened his imprint on Anaheim’s roster heading into his 2nd full season as GM.

Terry, Zegras, and Drysdale Ink New Deals

Much to the chagrin of Anaheim’s fanbase, Pat Verbeek and Jeff Solomon (Ducks VP of Hockey Operations/Assistant GM) engaged in a series of lengthy and discomforting summertime contract negotiations with three focal points of the Ducks’ young core: forwards Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras, and defenseman Jamie Drysdale. Terry’s circumstance was unique in that he was arbitration-eligible in early August, while Zegras and Drysdale were not. Verbeek and Solomon appeared to take a hardline negotiating stance, but when the dust settled, Anaheim inked Terry, Zegras, and Drysdale to essentially market value deals (using Evolving Hockey’s contract projections as a baseline for comparison).

Though the road of negotiations was likely unnecessarily long, Verbeek recognized the value of all three players and secured new contracts with each of them for the team going forward. The avoidance of arbitration and the extensive-term given to Terry was an especially important data point in understanding Verbeek’s evaluation of Anaheim’s young core and vision for the team’s long-term success.

Five Key Questions for the 2023-2024 Anaheim Ducks Season

1. Can Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale quickly acclimate to Greg Cronin’s new system?

Due to their lengthy training camp holdouts, Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale admittedly had some catching up to do with respect to the new system being implemented by first-year head coach Greg Cronin. After officially signing his new 3-year contract, Zegras said:

“It’s tough. Every hockey player knows how important training camp is… definitely some catching up to do, but I feel good”.

Zegras and Drysdale played their entire NHL careers up to this point under former Ducks head coach Dallas Eakins. Last season, Zegras led the Ducks in goals (28; tied with Troy Terry), assists (42), and points (65); Drysdale was limited to only 8 games due to a season-ending shoulder injury.

Zegras and Drysdale’s RAPM charts (courtesy of Evolving Hockey) tallied over their first three seasons (2020-2023) are shown below. Both players have struggled defensively during the start of their careers, but Zegras has shown a penchant for elite playmaking and scoring, and has also been effective on the powerplay.

In examining their tracking data over the same 2020-2023 period (shown below and provided by Corey Sznajder as part of the All Three Zones Project), more nuance and specificity can be obtained regarding the strengths and weaknesses of their play in their first three seasons. Zegras has excelled in particular at High Danger Assists, Offensive Chance and Shot Contributions/Assists, and Controlled Zone Entries, while struggling with Defensive Zone Retrievals/Exits and Forechecking. Drysdale has been extremely effective at executing Controlled Zone Entries, Defensive Zone Exits with Puck Possession, and High Danger Assists (especially from the center of the ice), but has struggled mightily with his overall Zone Entry Defense and Total Offensive Shot Contributions and Assists.

Over the next three years, Ducks fans will be looking to see both Zegras and Drysdale blossom fully into core foundational pieces for the team going into their next contracts. How they adapt to and mesh with Greg Cronin’s coaching system and style will go a long way towards determining the extent of their growth.

2. How will Troy Terry perform after netting his big contract?

Troy Terry notched his 2nd consecutive All-Star appearance during the 2022-2023 season and was praised by then-head coach Dallas Eakins for his burgeoning leadership qualities. Terry was tied with Trevor Zegras for a team-leading 23 goals in the 2022-2023 season, was tied with Cam Fowler for 2nd on the team in assists (38), and was 2nd on the team in points (61).

Terry’s RAPM chart (courtesy of Evolving Hockey) tallied over his last three seasons (2020-2023) is shown below. Terry has put up stellar numbers both offensively and defensively, and at both even strength (EV) and on the powerplay (PP).

In examining Terry’s tracking data over the same 2020-2023 period (once again courtesy of Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones Project), we can ascertain just how dominant he has been in so many phases of the game despite playing on a perennial lottery team. Terry’s Zone Entry tracking data rates him 3-4 standard deviations above the league average, which easily places him among the very elite in the NHL. He is also a dominant offensive force in terms of Shot and Chance Contributions, High Danger Assists, and Rush Offense. While his consistently strong box-score statistics have garnered Terry substantial praise for his offense, a woefully underappreciated aspect of Terry’s game is his defensive play. This underappreciation is likely due to Terry’s underwhelming size, and that his defensive game does not rely on physicality or elite forechecking. Rather, it is his ability to effectively and skillfully retrieve pucks in the defensive zone and exit the defensive zone while possessing the puck that are hallmarks of his defensive prowess.

With a 7-year contract inked, Ducks fans will expect Terry’s consistently elite play in both ends to continue to grow, along with his leadership influence and mentorship of Anaheim’s coveted prospect pool.

3. How will the new free agent signings perform?

Pat Verbeek’s biggest free agent moves during the offseason were inarguably the signings of Alex Killorn and Radko Gudas. On last season’s loaded Tampa Bay Lighting team, Killorn was 5th in goals (28), 6th in assists (37), and 4th in points (65), with respectable underlying on-ice numbers. Gudas had a wonderful season with the Florida Panthers, posting extremely impressive 5v5 xGF (58.5%) and CF (56.6%) numbers.

Killorn and Gudas’ RAPM charts (courtesy of Evolving Hockey) tallied over their last three seasons (2020-2023) are shown below. Killorn has demonstrated very potent goal-scoring talent, while struggling to limit shot quality defensively. Gudas has put up extremely impressive numbers across the board, and has been especially skilled in denying quality shots while in the defensive zone.

Gudas has been particularly effective at buoying his team’s ability to suppress quality shot chances when he is on the ice. Micah McCurdy’s With and Without Statistics (taken from his wonderful HockeyViz site) show that during the 2022-2023 season, the Florida Panthers’ expected goals against per 60 minutes rate (xGA/60) was 22% lower with Gudas on the ice compared to when he was on the bench (2.24 with Gudas; 2.78 without Gudas).

Ducks fans have good reason to be skeptical about Verbeek’s signings of Killorn and Gudas. Both players are in their mid-30s (34 and 33 years old, respectively), and the Ducks have been anchored so far by the poor play of veterans Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano, who were both signed last offseason to free agent contracts. In spite of this, Killorn and Gudas still have an opportunity to be productive under Greg Cronin’s new system while also providing valuable mentorship to Anaheim’s young core. How their contracts will age and synchronize with future contracts for current prospects is a cause for concern that has the potential to haunt Verbeek in years 3-4 of both contracts (year 3 for Gudas’ deal, and years 3-4 for Killorn’s).

4. Do Pavel Mintyukov and Jackson LaCombe have NHL staying power?

Perhaps the most exciting development coming out of training camp was the news that both Pavel Mintyukov and Jackson LaCombe made Anaheim’s opening night roster. Mintyukov (19 years old) and LaCombe (22 years old) are two key pieces of the Ducks’ deep young defensive core, and Pat Verbeek has given them an opportunity to start in the NHL on opening night of the 2023-2024 season. Whether or not Mintyukov and LaCombe can remain with the Ducks for the majority (or entirety) of this season will undoubtedly be one of the most fascinating storylines for Ducks fans to track. Verbeek deserves credit for giving each of them this opportunity as opposed to playing veterans in Anaheim (e.g., Robert Hägg) and having Mintyukov and LaCombe start the season in San Diego.

5. Will Greg Cronin’s coaching style be an asset or a liability?

Pat Verbeek’s decision to move on from the Dallas Eakins Era provided both relief and hope for Ducks fans during the offseason. While Eakins was an exemplary leader and valued member of the Orange County community, Verbeek has strongly hinted at a lack of systems detail and a subpar developmental environment plaguing the team last season. This can be inferred from the emphasis Verbeek has placed on new head coach Greg Cronin’s strengths in these areas. These sentiments have also been implied by several Ducks players. As reported by The Sporting Tribune's Derek Lee, Jamie Drysdale recently stated:

“There’s just a lot of accountability across the board, a lot of learning. Just kind of dialing in on little details. So, it’s great, I think it’s definitely necessary for us. It’s different than what we’re used to.”

Cronin’s first season behind the Ducks bench at Honda Center should provide ample evidence for whether or not his coaching philosophy, line optimization, and systems are an improvement over the previous regime.

2023-2024 Anaheim Ducks Starting Lineup Projections

cRASH thE pOND sTAFF prEDICTIONS FOR THE 2023-2024 sEASON

1. What is your projection for the final Pacific Division Standings?

2. Will the Ducks make the playoffs? If so, how far will they go?

Jake: No. While they’ll take a leap forward this year and improve upon their prior season, it will not be enough to make it to the playoffs.

Felix: The Ducks will not make the playoffs.

CJ: While I think the Ducks have a very outside chance at the playoffs, that would assume every single thing breaks the right way. I think they are probably a .500 team in reality. A good improvement! But not ready for the leap yet.

Mike: No. The Ducks will finish with 75-80 points and miss the playoffs, but they’ll avoid picking in the top 10 of the draft for the 6th straight year.

Bob: No. The Ducks will show MUCH improvement this season, but will ultimately fall out of the playoff race in February/March.

Eric: No. They make it to at least Christmas being interesting, but the second half of the year cements them firmly away from the playoff picture and the Ducks will pick in the top 6-7 again next year.

3. Who will lead the Ducks in points?

Jake: Trevor Zegras

Felix: Trevor Zegras

CJ: This is kind of a hot take, but I’m gonna shoot my shot: Leo Carlsson is going to lead the team in points. Especially if he plays with high-quality linemates like Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras most of the year.

Mike: Trevor Zegras

Bob: Troy Terry

Eric: Trevor Zegras is the obvious choice for this, so go ahead and give me Mason McTavish.

4. Which Ducks prospect will have the most impactful rookie season?

Jake: Leo Carlsson. I think he is the rookie that is most likely on the team for the whole season.

Felix: A tie between Leo Carlsson and Pavel Mintyukov.

CJ: Leo Carlsson, for sure. Though with how Pavel Mintyukov performed this preseason, I wouldn’t be shocked if he had a breakout year.

Mike: Pavel Mintyukov. He’ll be with the Ducks for the entire season and will show he belongs as a full-time future top-4 NHL defenseman.

Bob: Leo Carlsson. The hate he received at the draft was completely unwarranted and he’s going to make a lot of people eat crow. I think Carlsson will end up playing the majority of his season in Anaheim and will have a 40+ point season.

Eric: I think Leo Carlsson ends up being very effective but gets off to a slower start to his NHL career. I'll say Pavel Mintyukov has the most impactful season but Olen Zellweger is the most fun to watch.

5. Is John Gibson a Duck by the season’s end?

Jake: Yes. In-season trades just don’t happen that often for goalies.

Felix: Yes.

CJ: I will say no - Gibson will be dealt at the trade deadline. I think this is the year Lukáš Dostál proves he is ready for full-time number-one duties.

Mike: Yes, simply because I’ll need to see it to believe it.

Bob: Yes. I think John Gibson will return to form this season. I do think that IF he is moved, it’s in an offseason trade. In the end, I am just ready for this topic to die.

Eric: No. A contending team will deal with a goalie injury midyear and they'll overpay to get Gibson on their team. This will be the first time that Verbeek playing hardball truly benefits the Ducks.