Anaheim Ducks 2022-2023 Season Preview
The Anaheim Ducks are set to embark on their 29th season in franchise history, with the first puck of the 2022-2023 regular season dropping one week from today on Wednesday, October 12 at Honda Center against the Seattle Kraken. As the preseason comes to a close and meaningful games loom on the horizon, Crash The Pond will take a look back at the 2021-2022 Ducks campaign, review their extremely active offseason, and preview the upcoming 2022-2023 season, which has the potential to be the most exciting in recent team history.
2021-2022 Season Review
The Anaheim Ducks finished the 2021-2022 season with a 31-37-14 record (76 points; 7th in Pacific Division; 13th in Western Conference). On the season, they posted a 47.70% xGF and 47.44% CF at even strength (courtesy of Evolving Hockey). Although their record was ultimately dismal, it is easy to forget the excitement and surprise surrounding Anaheim’s season up until the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the NHL in late December. Prior to their first COVID-related postponed game on December 20, 2021, the Ducks had amassed a 17-9-6 record and were comfortably sitting in a playoff spot in the Pacific Division. In addition, their xGF% (shown below for the entire season, courtesy of MoneyPuck) was consistently above 50% in November and the first half of December. However, they struggled mightily upon their return from the league-wide COVID pause and were consistently being outperformed by their opponents through early March.
Ducks GM Pat Verbeek (who replaced former GM Bob Murray after his resignation from the team in mid-November due to allegations of improper professional conduct) then proceeded to deal pending UFAs Hampus Lindholm, Rickard Rakell, Josh Manson, and Nicolas Deslauriers before the trade deadline, which effectively rendered the rest of the 2021-2022 Ducks season as a developmental opportunity for their young prospects.
2022 Offseason Review
Anaheim was very active during the 2022 offseason in both the NHL Draft, as well as during the subsequent free agency period.
Due to missing the playoffs for the fourth straight season, along with their trading of Hampus Lindholm to the Boston Bruins at the trade deadline, the Ducks sported two first-round picks in this year’s draft and selected defenseman Pavel Mintyukov at #10 and forward Nathan Gaucher at #22. Anaheim was also a major player in free agency, inking deals with defenseman John Klingberg (1-year, $7 million), forward Ryan Strome (5-year, $25 million), and forward Frank Vatrano (3-year, $10.95 million). They also avoided arbitration and re-signed restricted free agent forward Isac Lundestrom to a 2-year, $3.6 million contract. Later in the offseason, the Ducks obtained defenseman Dmitry Kulikov from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for future considerations. This addition was a prime example of GM Pat Verbeek weaponizing Anaheim’s ample cap space (the Wild were eager to move Kulikov’s $2.25M contract) to obtain a quality defenseman with only one year remaining on his contract.
With each of these moves, and by avoiding signing older UFAs to extensive and high-AAV contracts, Verbeek improved Anaheim’s roster greatly for the 2022-2023 season without compromising the future cap situation for the Ducks as they plan to sign young core pieces (e.g., Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry) to big contracts in the coming years.
Five Key Questions for the 2022-2023 Anaheim Ducks Season
1. Will Troy Terry be #VeryGood again?
Ducks winger Troy Terry had a breakout 2021-2022 season, leading the team in goals (37) and points (67), posting the second most team powerplay goals (7), and winning the Fan Vote to become an NHL All-Star for the first time in his career. Terry’s on-ice impact was equally as impressive as his box-score statistics. He posted a 51.07% xGF and a 50.14% CF, and both his RAPM and GAR underlying numbers were impressive (courtesy of Evolving Hockey). Terry’s RAPM chart from last season indicates that he was elite at generating quality offensive chances, and was also well above-average at shot generation and shot suppression.
For the season, Terry ranked in the 95th percentile overall (93rd percentile offensively and 47th percentile defensively) in terms of GAR (Goals Above Replacement). In other words, Terry was a top 5% player in the NHL by this metric. He was also valuable in drawing penalties at an above-replacement level rate.
Terry’s 2021-2022 tracking data (shown below and provided by Corey Sznajder as part of the All Three Zones Project) highlights several components of his game that were truly elite last season: controlled zone entries, offensive chance generation, and defensive zone retrievals.
Simply put, #TroyTerryIsVeryGood, and he was a beast in nearly all facets of his game last season. Naturally, this raises the question of whether or not Terry can sustain and/or surpass his elite play during the upcoming 2022-2023 season. Due to his very high shooting percentage from last season (19.27%), there has been some speculation that his goal total for next season will regress. While this may be true, Terry’s on-ice shooting percentage from last season was much lower (9.74%). This indicates that while his goal total may have been inflated, his assist total was likely lower than expected due either to his linemates’ inability to finish chances or their deferral to Terry in shooting the puck.
If Troy Terry can successfully build off of his breakout 2021-2022 season, it will substantially buoy the younger talent around him (e.g., Trevor Zegras) and will help propel Anaheim towards a postseason birth.
2. Can Anaheim’s young triad take essential next steps in their development?
Three central pieces of Anaheim’s young core received ample playing time last season: forward Trevor Zegras (age: 21), defenseman Jamie Drysdale (age: 20), and forward Isac Lundestrom (age: 22). Zegras was 2nd on the Ducks in points (61) behind Troy Terry, and also posted impressive underlying numbers offensively, where he was above replacement level at generating quality chances. Drysdale and Lundestrom both amassed respectable point totals (32 and 29, respectively), but struggled mightily from an on-ice perspective. Drysdale’s defensive performance and Lundestrom’s offensive performance were abysmal, whereas Drysdale was near replacement level offensively, and Lundestrom was above average defensively.
With two seasons of NHL play under their belts, the young triad of Zegras, Drysdale, and Lundestrom will need to take critical next steps in their development in order for the Ducks to be competitive. Zegras should find himself in a favorable position to succeed with quality wingers on his line. It remains to be seen how Drysdale and Lundestrom will be deployed, but we will address this later in this article when we project the 2022-2023 Ducks lineup.
3. How will the new free agent signings perform?
As discussed earlier, Anaheim was a significant player in free agency this offseason, signing John Klingberg, Ryan Strome, and Frank Vatrano to new contracts. Their 2021-2022 statistics and RAPM charts are shown below. Ducks fans should be very excited at the offensive prowess Klingberg will bring to the blue line this season. While Strome and Vatrano’s numbers were close to replacement level at 5v5, Strome excelled on the powerplay.
It will be fascinating to see how Anaheim’s new free agent class performs this season. The potential defensive pairing of Cam Fowler and John Klingberg could be particularly exciting, and Strome and Vatrano are both steady additions to the Ducks’ top six forward group. All three players have the potential to increase productivity on their lines and benefit the development of Anaheim’s young core through their veteran leadership.
4. Can John Gibson find more consistency in net?
Perhaps the biggest enigma of the 2021-2022 Ducks season was the fall of John Gibson. Anaheim’s veteran netminder was well below average at 5v5 last season, posting a -8.8 GSAx. He was well above average shorthanded, posting a +6.56 GSAx.
However, Gibson was extremely streaky throughout the season and went through a prolonged period of poor play after the All-Star break. We show Gibson’s monthly average Sv% (all situations; not cumulative) for the 2021-2022 season below in blue, with the linear trend throughout the season shown in dashed red. Gibson’s play was outstanding through the first half of the season, but declined markedly during the second half of the season after the All-Star break. His monthly Sv% values were all above 0.900 from October thru January, and all below 0.900 from February thru April.
In addition, we show Gibson’s on-ice numbers below for the first half of the season (left panel) and his final numbers at the end of the season (right panel). Clearly, Gibson’s on-ice numbers tanked during the second half of the season at both 5v5 (where he ended the season below replacement level) and shorthanded (where he was elite for the first half of the season, but declined significantly during the second half of the season).
If the Ducks are to make their first postseason appearance since the 2017-2018 season, they will need Gibson to avoid prolonged stretches of very poor play that have plagued his last several seasons in Anaheim.
5. Will Dallas Eakins earn a contract extension?
Ducks GM Pat Verbeek picked up the 4th year option on head coach Dallas Eakins’ contract towards the end of the 2021-2022 season. This sets up the 2022-2023 season as a lame-duck affair for Eakins. Since taking over behind the bench in Anaheim, Eakins has compiled a 77-100-32 record over three seasons, with both the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons being significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
While Eakins has shown strong leadership skills and has been praised for his communication with Anaheim’s young players, his in-game decision-making and lineup construction have been questionable at times. Whether Eakins earns a contract extension after this season will depend upon the extent to which he can capitalize on what is unquestionably the best Ducks roster heading into training camp of his tenure in Anaheim. It will also be interesting to see if Verbeek legitimately views this season as an audition of sorts for Eakins, or if he already has a preferred coach in mind to bring in next offseason after Eakins’ deal expires.
2022-2023 Anaheim Ducks Lineup Projection
Below are the Crash The Pond projected lines for the start of the 2022-2023 Anaheim Ducks season. We note that forward Sam Carrick, who was a favorite to land a starting job amongst Anaheim’s bottom six forward group, is beginning the season on injured reserve with a torn labrum and is not expected back until November. In addition, Ducks defenseman Urho Vaakanainen, who was in contention for winning a starting job as the 3rd pair LHD, suffered a scary injury during a preseason game against the San Jose Sharks and will likely not be available on opening night.
Ducks Forwards Analysis
With the offseason free agent signings of Ryan Strome and Frank Vatrano, along with the expected continued development of Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, and Max Comtois, there is no doubt that Anaheim’s projected top six forward group is greatly improved from last season. However, the team’s projected 3rd and 4th line pairings are currently giant question marks.
It will be critical to monitor the performance of Mason McTavish and whether or not his linemates are helping to facilitate an optimal environment for his development and success. This may also be a make-or-break season for winger Max Jones. While his high-energy game is undoubtedly exciting for the team, Jones’ underlying numbers from 2018-2021 have been unimpressive (see below RAPM chart, courtesy of Evolving Hockey), and he has had a penchant for being injured (note: Jones’ 2021-2022 numbers were excluded from his RAPM chart due to him missing all but two regular season games last season due to injury). If Jones can stay healthy, there is good reason to believe that he can improve upon his game and become a steady bottom six forward presence for the Ducks going forward.
Ducks Defensemen Analysis
Anaheim’s top four defensemen are fairly clear cut, and the projected pairings of Fowler-Klingberg and Kulikov-Drysdale would be very interesting to watch if Anaheim does implement them to start the season. Our projected bottom pairing of Benoit-Shattenkirk was influenced by preseason cuts, where all of Anaheim’s recent draft picks were sent down to the AHL or to Juniors, along with the frightening injury sustained by Urho Vaakanainen during the preseason.
The two biggest storylines for Anaheim’s top six defenseman group are clearly the performance of coveted free agent signing John Klingberg, and the development of Jamie Drysdale. Klingberg’s one-year deal could lead to a variety of outcomes depending on how this season unfolds, including staying in Anaheim on a long-term deal, or being flipped at the deadline for assets if the Ducks are out of playoff contention. Drysdale’s 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 RAPM charts are shown below. Clearly, he improved his play dramatically last season, but he will need to take a big step forward in his development this season for the Ducks to contend for a playoff spot, and more importantly for the long-term success of the franchise beyond this season.
Ducks Goalies Analysis
The combination of starter John Gibson and backup Anthony Stolarz has the potential to be a very good goalie tandem in the NHL this season. However, as discussed earlier in this article, their success will depend largely on the ability of Gibson to avoid extended stretches of poor play that have negatively impacted the team during the last few seasons. Stolarz had an excellent 2021-2022 season as Gibson’s backup, posting even strength and shorthanded numbers that were well above replacement level (see below Goalie Chart, courtesy of Evolving Hockey). He will be looking to build off this success during the final year of his current contract with the Ducks this season.
Crash The Pond Staff Predictions for the 2022-2023 Season
Crash The Pond co-founders Jake Rudolph, Felix Sicard, and CJ Woodling, along with staff members Mike DeFlorio, Bob Morales, Eric Stites, and Jonathan Gleesol, will now make their predictions for the 2022-2023 Anaheim Ducks season. Let’s go!
1. What is your projection for the final Pacific Division Standings?
2. Will the Ducks make the playoffs? If so, how far will they go?
Jake: Yes they will, as a Wild Card team, but they will lose in the 1st round. Overall, it is a massive success though because they gained playoff experience.
Felix: Yes. The Ducks will make the playoffs, and will likely be out in the 1st round.
CJ: Yes. They get one of the Wild Card spots but are knocked out in seven games in the 1st round.
Mike: Yes, as a Wild Card team, but they will be eliminated in the 1st round of the playoffs.
Bob: Yes, as a Wild Card team. They will get bounced in the 2nd round of the playoffs.
Eric: No. They’ll compete late into the regular season, but will be eliminated from the playoff race with about 5-7 games left in the season.
Jonathan: Nope. They’ll miss the second Wild Card by two points which they’ll drop in a winnable game to Ottawa or Arizona.
3. Who will be the Team MVP?
Jake: Trevor Zegras
Felix: Trevor Zegras. He will lead the team in points, spearhead an emergent powerplay, and blossom defensively.
CJ: Trevor Zegras
Mike: Troy Terry, because #TerryIsVeryGood.
Bob: Trevor Zegras
Eric: Ryan Strome
Jonathan: John Klingberg. He will score 60+ points from the blue line.
4. Who will be Anaheim’s Most Improved Player?
Jake: Kevin Shattenkirk
Felix: Jamie Drysdale. With another offseason of physical development, no longer being asked to play top pairing duties, and the natural progression of his on-ice game, he will break out into a legitimate NHL defenseman.
CJ: Jamie Drysdale
Mike: Jamie Drysdale
Bob: Jamie Drysdale
Eric: Jamie Drysdale
Jonathan: Mason McTavish. He will finish as the 2nd line center by the end of the season.
5. Will Dallas Eakins be offered a contract extension beyond this season?
Jake: No.
Felix: Eakins has a realistic chance of being extended beyond this season if the Ducks make the playoffs.
CJ: No. Eakins will be better than last year with new data and help from the front office, but won’t be tendered a new contract so Verbeek can get his guy.
Mike: Yes. Eakins gets a 3-year extension after guiding the Ducks to the postseason and helping to develop the team’s young core.
Bob: Yes.
Eric: Yes, but this will also depend on the coaching market at that time.
Jonathan: No. He’ll be fired on January 14th.