Anaheim Ducks 2022 Trade Deadline Preview
The NHL Trade Deadline is fast approaching and will occur one week from today (Monday, March 21, 2022, at 12 pm PT). While the Anaheim Ducks have been much improved this season (27-25-10, 64 points), they are still very unlikely to make the postseason, and new GM Pat Verbeek has made it clear that the team intends to sell its pending UFA assets if they cannot be re-signed before the deadline. This confluence of factors means that the next week leading up to the trade deadline has the potential to be one of the most consequential periods in Anaheim Ducks franchise history, and could ultimately propel the Ducks forward in their ongoing rebuild towards being a perennial Stanley Cup contender.
To prepare for this potentially dramatic week in Anaheim, Crash The Pond will assess the trade rumors and estimated trade value of three groups of Ducks players that might be playing for different teams by the middle of next week. We will review the box score stats and on-ice metrics for each potential trade asset, and then provide predictions for the trade value of each team based on the latest rumors around the league, and based on similar assets having been dealt recently. All statistics below are provided courtesy of Evolving Hockey, and all shot-based metrics are ranked based on a minimum of 300 minutes of TOI.
Group 1: VERY Likely To Be Dealt
This group will include three Ducks veteran players who, based on Pat Verbeek’s recent comments, are all but certain to be traded ahead of next Monday’s deadline. In late January, Crash The Pond co-founder Jake Rudolph wrote a preliminary assessment of the trade value of each of these players. This will serve as useful context for our updated predictions below.
Hampus Lindholm
Box score stats: 60 GP, 5G, 17A, 22 PTS
Shot-based metrics: 2.29 xGF/60, 2.65 xGA/60 (both last among Ducks defensemen)
Current trade rumors: Hampus Lindholm is clearly Anaheim’s most valuable asset heading into this year’s trade deadline. Despite his relatively poor on-ice play this season, Pierre LeBrun has reported that Lindholm has generated the most league-wide interest for pending UFA defensemen. In addition, his contract expires at the end of this season, and according to NHL insider Elliotte Friedman, Verbeek is reticent about giving too much term on new contracts. LeBrun mentioned that the Ducks were willing to extend Lindholm for up to five years, which Lindholm’s camp rejected, and that those negotiations have stalled during the last week.
CTP prediction: Lindholm is dealt for at least a 1st round pick and a good-to-great prospect. He will not be re-signed during the offseason due to differences between his and the team’s desired contract term.
Josh Manson
Box score stats: 45 GP, 4G, 5A, 9 PTS
Shot-based metrics: 2.49 xGF/60, 2.38 xGA/60 (3rd and 2nd, respectively, among Ducks defensemen)
Current trade rumors: Josh Manson has had a very solid bounce-back season playing primarily alongside Cam Fowler, and is another valuable trade asset for Anaheim heading into next week’s deadline. Pierre LeBrun has reported that the Carolina Hurricanes, among several other teams, are very interested in trading for Manson, although they would need a broker team to help with cost due to their cap situation.
CTP prediction: Manson will be dealt for a 1st round pick and a mid-round pick, then re-signed during the offseason to a team-friendly 3-4 year deal.
Rickard Rakell
Box score stats: 51 GP, 16G, 12A, 28 PTS
Shot-based metrics: 2.55 xGF/60, 2.53 xGA/60 (5th and 9th, respectively, among Ducks forwards)
Current trade rumors: Rickard Rakell is another very valuable asset for the Ducks, and his value has only increased during his post-All Star Break scoring uptick (6G in his last 13GP). According to TFP, Rakell has been linked to a number of teams both in recent weeks and going back to last season. In particular, The Athletic reporter Arthur Staple cited two league sources as indicating that the New York Rangers have shown increased interest in Rakell during the last few weeks. Notably, Verbeek has not publicly mentioned Rakell as a target for a contract extension ahead of the deadline.
CTP prediction: With his recent hot streak, Rakell will be traded and fetches Anaheim at least a 2nd round pick and a good prospect, or a 1st round pick. He will not be re-signed during the offseason.
GROUP 2: Uncertain, But Could Be Dealt
Sam Carrick
Box score stats: 49 GP, 9G, 7A, 16 PTS
Shot-based metrics: 2.23 xGF/60, 2.22 xGA/60 (8th and 2nd, respectively, among Ducks forwards)
CTP prediction: Due to his excellent defensive play on Anaheim’s 4th line this year, Sam Carrick is not dealt by the Ducks, and could receive a contract extension during the offseason.
Max Comtois
Box score stats: 36 GP, 2G, 7A, 9 PTS
Shot-based metrics: 2.42 xGF/60, 2.41 xGA/60 (7th and 6th, respectively, among Ducks forwards)
Current trade rumors: Max Comtois has been a primary resident of Dallas Eakins’ doghouse this season, despite respectable on-ice numbers and vastly improved defensive play relative to last season. Due primarily to his low production and a dismal 4% shooting percentage, Comtois’ name has been floated in trade rumors ahead of the deadline.
CTP prediction: Verbeek correctly realizes that he would be selling Comtois when his value is at an all-time low, and he is ultimately not traded.
Nicolas Deslauriers
Box score stats: 59 GP, 5G, 5A, 10 PTS
Shot-based metrics: 2.16 xGF/60, 2.54 xGA/60 (11th and 10th, respectively, among Ducks forwards)
CTP prediction: Nicolas Deslauriers is dealt for a 3rd or 4th round pick to a contending team looking for a 4th-line enforcer. This value would be similar to the Vegas Golden Knights receiving a 3rd round pick from the New York Rangers in exchange for enforcer Ryan Reaves this past offseason. Verbeek will not re-sign Deslauriers during the offseason.
Derek Grant
Box score stats: 54 GP, 8G, 7A, 15 PTS
Shot-based metrics: 2.16 xGF/60, 2.66 xGA/60 (10th and 12th, respectively, among Ducks forwards)
CTP prediction: Anaheim waived Derek Grant earlier in the season and he went unclaimed, but a number of playoff contenders could still see value in his modest goal tally this season and his long-standing reputation as a solid penalty killer. However, due to the extra year remaining on his contract after this season, we predict that Grant is not dealt by the Ducks this season, but should be traded ahead of next year’s deadline.
Anthony Stolarz
Box score stats: 21 GP, 2.66 GA/G, .919 SV%
On-ice metrics: 4.40 GSAx (All situations), -0.50 GSAx (5v5), 4.54 GSAx (shorthanded)
CTP prediction: Stolarz has been an excellent backup goaltender this season for the Ducks, outplaying starter John Gibson at 5v5. If the Ducks decide to trade him, he receives a 2nd rounder or a good prospect.
GROUP 3: It’s A Longshot, But…
John Gibson
Box score stats: 42 GP, 3.00 GA/G, .907 SV%
On-ice metrics: -3.25 GSAx (All situations), -11.62 GSAx (5v5), 9.21 GSAx (shorthanded)
CTP prediction: Gibson has been horrific at 5v5 this season, as his -11.62 GSAx at 5v5 ranks 4th worst in the NHL (minimum 900 minutes of TOI). However, he has been elite shorthanded, as his 9.21 GSAx ranks tied for 2nd best in the NHL (minimum 100 minutes of TOI). The million-dollar question for Ducks fans: how substantial a haul would the Ducks receive if they traded John Gibson? Despite his league-wide reputation as an elite goaltender, Gibson’s last three seasons have been poor, as recently discussed by JFresh Hockey:
Although it is unlikely the Ducks would trade Gibson, based on his reputation alone, we predict that he could easily fetch the equivalent of three 1st round talents if he were dealt, similar to the Jack Eichel trade.
Buckle Up, Ducks Fans
The next week is shaping up to be one of the most consequential periods in Anaheim Ducks franchise history. If Verbeek properly values and manages his many trade assets, the Ducks’ ongoing rebuild could easily enter its concluding phase faster and sooner than we all anticipated at the start of this season.