5 Takeaways: Zegras Debuts, Misuse of the Ducks Lineup Leads to Two Blown Leads
The winds of change had come to Arizona with the Ducks for this series. The Trevor Zegras era officially began for the Ducks. The long-awaited debut for the Ducks top prospect came with a lot of positives for him, while a lot of negatives for the Ducks as a whole.
Trevor Zegras Belongs
To say Ducks fans were eager to see Trevor Zegras make his debut would be an understatement, and it seemed like Fox Sports got the memo. In the first game of the series, the broadcast had a highlight package ready to go at the start along with a voiceover stating the Trevor Zegras era has begun.
Even though Zegras did not pick up a point in his two games in Arizona, he quickly showed what he brings to the table. It is rare for a shift to go by without him doing something to draw your attention. Whether that is holding onto the puck and deftly feeding it to a teammate in a prime scoring opportunity, or getting in on the forecheck and using his active stick and skill to cause a turnover, or entering the zone with speed and deking out a defender. Zegras instantly improved the Ducks roster and made the power play much more dangerous.
The only downside to this series for Zegras is that Eakins treated him with kid gloves on, but there will be more on that in a bit. For now, enjoy some of the highlights of his play below:
Zegras finished the series with a 60 CF%, 48.33 xGF%, and a 53.85 SCF% in 28:19 of ice time.
Dallas Eakins Galaxy Brain In-Game Strategy
If it wasn’t for Zegras debut being massive news, this easily would have been my biggest takeaway from the series. In the first game of the series, Eakins made a point from about midway through the first period through the end of the second period to not play Trevor Zegras at 5v5 and instead play one of Derek Grant or Nicolas Deslauriers with Sam Steel and Jakob Silfverberg.
While Eakins provided a slight explanation in his post-game press conference that he wanted to limit Zegras defensive zone starts, which is why the substitution happened, this does not explain why both Grant and Deslauriers got offensive zone starts with that line. At the end of the day, this change added to the choppiness and sloppiness of that game and had a negative impact on the Ducks as they were defending a 3-0 lead. It might not be the sole reason for the Ducks blowing that lead and losing the game, but it surely did not help. It was not until the game was tied at 3-3 that Zegras started to see the ice at 5v5 again, and shocker the Ducks started to generate chances because they were not actively shooting themselves in the foot by playing Deslauriers and Grant.
As for game two, it appeared for most of the game that this strategy had been put on the shelf. The Ducks once again got out to a 3-0 lead, largely due to some timely goal scoring along with Ryan Miller playing well through the first two periods. Eakins seemed to keep the lines rolling and had no problem putting Zegras on the ice at 3-0 or even 3-1. Then the Coyotes started to cash in on their chances and got within a goal at 3-2. At that moment, Eakins decided to deploy his strategy from the prior game. He replaced Milano with Deslauriers and Zegras with Grant, and the Ducks allowed the game-tying goal with Derek Grant on the ice. Once again this strategy was not the sole reason they lost, but it certainly did not help.
The Ducks and Dallas Eakins, specifically, need to get the thought that playing “defensively responsible” players like Grant and Deslauriers over Milano and Zegras in tight situations out of their head. Derek Grant and Nicolas Deslauriers were the worst Ducks forwards of the series defensively at 5v5 having been on the ice for the most xGA/60 at 3.96 and 3.38, while Zegras and Milano were at 1.61 and 0.91 respectively. Just because a guy plays a more physical game does not mean he is better defensively, Milano and Zegras effectively used their speed and quick sticks to help the team exit the zone and attack the other net.
Dallas Eakins Roster Selection
In game one, no one batted an eye at the decision to scratch Danton Heinen because it meant that Trevor Zegras would draw into the lineup. But it probably should have raised a few eyebrows. Danton Heinen has been the best defensive forward this season, having allowed only 2.13 xGA/60 at 5v5 along with being on the ice for the second-most chances at 2.66 xGA/60 behind Adam Henrique (Don’t worry I’ll get there). Heinen is the exact type of player that you want on your team to help defend a 3-0 lead. He will be responsible in his own end while helping the team maintain the puck in the offensive zone. The fact that Deslauriers played over him is nearly criminal.
In game two, not only was Heinen scratched, but Troy Terry was also for the incoming Milano even though there was an open spot on the fourth line due to Carter Rowney getting hurt. I will fully admit, Terry has been a mixed bag so far this season. He has had games where he showcased his vision and playmaking ability, while in others he has been nearly invisible on the ice. The first game against Arizona was more so the former. Terry was second on the Ducks in individual chances, while being on the ice for 0.53 XGF and only 0.03 xGA, good for a 95.11 xGF%. One could say that is very good.
Eakins shot himself in the foot by scratching Terry after this performance and instead played Vinni Lettieri, who has played in 48 career NHL games and appears to be a career AHLer. The logic behind this decision was probably due to Eakins' view of the 4th line. He thinks this line has to be filled with grinders, which Lettieri somewhat fits the profile of, instead of skilled players. This thought process has created a completely suboptimal lineup composition, where the Ducks are icing a line each game that is continually being outshot and outchanced (39.38 CF% and 32.03 xGF%).
Instead, the Ducks could have iced a 4th line of Heinen-Henrique-Terry. Henrique is in a weird spot, due to the Ducks looking to move him, but he is still on the roster so why not utilize him and potentially boost his trade value with some production. If not Henrique, the Ducks could use David Backes with Heinen and Terry.
Utilizing Jfresh’s WAR roster builder, a line of Heinen-Henrique-Terry has a projected WAR of 3.2, a line of Heinen-Backes-Terry has a projected WAR of 3.7 due to Backes being great defensively, while Deslauriers-Grant-Rowney has a projected WAR of -0.4 (For reference, Milano Getzlaf Jones have a projected WAR of 1.9, so being over 3 is very good).
Max Jones has Entered the Building
Max Jones had an extremely positive impact on the Ducks over these past two games. From an eye-test perspective, he was constantly getting in on the forecheck and making a pest of himself and got rewarded for going to the front of the net with two goals.
The numbers also back up the eye test. He led the Ducks with 1.3 ixG in all situations along with 9 shot attempts, 8 scoring chances, and 7 high danger chances. He did all of this while not being on the ice for too many shots or chances against, posting a 73.68 CF% along with a 81.27 xGF%.
This is the exact type of performance that I have been waiting for from Max Jones, and if he can continue to play like this for the Ducks, it will be a huge boost to the franchise long term.
The Ducks Played OK
The majority of the headlines will be doom and gloom, and rightfully so. The Ducks blew two 3-0 leads, but I will end my takeaways with something positive. The Ducks played very well to get the 3-0 lead in both games and if you score adjust the games actually came out on top in the expected goals battle in game two while being slightly behind the Coyotes in game one.
Don’t let the Coyotes’ reputation fool you also, they are a solid team at 5v5, sitting at 51.28 xGF% at 5v5 for the season, which is good for 13th in the league. If the Ducks had just made a few tweaks to either the lineup or the in-game strategy, they could have left Arizona with four points instead of one.
All stats per Naturalstattrick.