5 Takeaways: Where is the Offense?
The Ducks got a split on the road against a team they are competing with for a playoff spot in the Honda West Division.
On the surface, this does not seem to be a horrible result, but when you dive deeper into the storyline, this was an awful series for the Ducks, where they were, quite frankly, lucky to come away with any points.
Here are five things I want to highlight:
1. John Gibson was Incredible
John Gibson was under siege for both games with the Ducks allowing a season-high 3.78 expected goals against in all situations during last night’s game. He was able to meet the challenge in game 1, by providing the Ducks with a shutout, but came up short of that feat in game 2, by allowing three goals (I should note two of these came off of Ducks sticks). That does not mean he was not stellar in the second game though. He provided highlight-reel saves like the one below:
Looking into some of the numbers, in the first game of the series he posted a 2.6 GSAx and in the second game, a 0.55 GSAx. In laymen’s terms, that means that if you were to replace Gibson with an average goalie, the Ducks would have allowed three more goals in the series than they did in reality. For comparison’s sake, Kuemper posted a 0.67 GSAx in game one and a -0.61 GSAx in game two.
Gibson provided Vezina and Hart level goaltending for the Ducks throughout the series, and quite frankly was the only Duck who showed up for the most part. You have to think he wanted to give his own teammates a headlock last night instead of Connor Garland.
2. Awful Second Periods
The Ducks were extremely bad at driving play towards the Coyotes net and generating offense throughout the entirety of both games, but the second period was a special kind of bad.
In the second period of the first game, the Ducks generated six shot attempts, three unblocked shot attempts, two shots on goal, four scoring chances, two high danger chances, and 0.4 expected goals in all situations. They followed up this god-awful effort with an even worse one in the second game, where it looked like the players were barely even trying.
In the second period of the second game, the Ducks generated three shot attempts, two unblocked shot attempts, one shot on goal, one scoring chance, zero high danger chances, and 0.08 expected goals in all situations. Yes, you read that right; 0.08 expected goals.
Quite frankly, that type of period is unacceptable, especially when they are playing a team they are supposed to be competing with for a playoff spot. If the Ducks continue to have stretches like this against teams with more offensive firepower than the Coyotes, there could be some blowouts coming their way.
3. The Kids Aren’t Alright
The Comtois-Steel-Terry line was a bright spot for the Ducks in the first game of the season, with that line by the eye test seeming to be the only one that could generate chances, which was confirmed by looking at the numbers (0.33 xGF 0.22 xGA for a 53.4% xGF%). The story since then has not been as rosy.
Since that game, those three as a line have only generated 1.05 expected goals, while allowing 2.18 expected goals against in six games played. They tend to get stuck in their defensive end a lot and when they are able to break into the offensive zone, one of the three gives the puck away with a poor play along the boards or a poor pass.
Dallas Eakins took notice of this poor play by shaking things up in the first game of the series by taking out Troy Terry and replacing him with Vinni Lettieri. This change did not result in a significant change, with that line logging a 30.19 xGF% and a 30% CF%.
Terry was reinserted into the lineup for game two, with Eakins presumably hoping that a night in the press box would fire him up and provide a spark to that line. That coaching tactic also did not work, with that line having a 0% xGF% (0 xGF and 0.15 xGA).
I am a big fan of each of those players, but it is just not clicking right now for them. The most noticeable thing for me is that Steel has been passing the puck to the other team A LOT in the attacking zone, which makes me wonder if he is the weak link on the line right now. A change has to happen and it might not be a bad idea to give Sam Steel a night off against the Blues and let David Backes play against the team he used to captain.
4. Special Teams Play
The power play and the penalty kill came into focus in this series for different reasons. The Ducks were the only team without a power-play goal prior to the series against the Coyotes, while being one of the top penalty-killing teams in the league on the back of John Gibson.
The Ducks would kill off all three penalty-killing situations in game one, but would eventually see their brick wall penetrated in game two. The Ducks had done a solid job killing off the prior three penalties in the game, but on their fourth kill, Jakob Silfverberg would take a high sticking call that would put the Ducks down two men. They would find a way to kill off the two-man advantage but eventually gave up a goal when the Coyotes exploited some soft coverage in the slot.
The Ducks were successful at keeping a tight box and not allowing any good looks from the home plate area for most of the series, but when you take too many penalties, eventually your players will get tired and make a coverage mistake. That is exactly what allowed the Coyotes to score the game-winning goal.
The power play finally broke through in the second game due to a fairly simple play from Danton Heinen. Good on them for finally putting the puck in the back of the net with the man advantage, but this does not mean everything is fine with the power play.
The Ducks struggled in this series, as they have throughout the entirety of the season to consistently get chances with the man advantage. They might get one good look each power play, and they are never able to follow up on that chance. A big reason for this is the PP is predictable and very stationary. There is not a whole lot of puck movement and it’s obvious that the Ducks are looking for one cross ice pass and then a shot, or a shot from the point that hopefully, the goalie can’t see due to a net-front screen.
These plays can be successful, but they also are not the highest percentage chances on a power play. The Ducks need to focus on having better movement away from the puck in order to get potentially lost in coverage by the penalty killers, or at least tire out them out.
5. Call Up Zegras ASAP
It was reported this week by Elliotte Friedman in 31 thoughts that the Ducks are looking for scoring help. This series would do nothing to change the opinion of management, with the Ducks generating a paltry 0.52 expected goals in the second game of the series. This leads me to my question, why is Trevor Zegras still with the San Diego Gulls, who have not played a game in a week?
The Ducks have seen first-hand this season that a player can jump straight into the NHL from the WJC and be successful, with the Avalanche utilizing Bowen Byram against the Ducks. So why not give it a try themselves? Zegras led the entire tournament in scoring while tying the American record for most WJC points ever and falling just short of breaking the points record in a single tournament. Simply put, he dominated offensively.
You have to imagine that he would improve the attack on an offensively starved Ducks team. It can’t get much worse than it is right now…
*All goalie stats per Evolving-Hockey. All other stats per Natural Stat Trick.