5 Takeaways: The Ducks Break the Streak
The Ducks headed to the mile-high city with an eight-game winless streak and while they would eventually break this streak in the second of the two games, with an OT win, this was not as feel-good of a moment as you might imagine. Let’s jump right into it all with five takeaways from the Ducks vs Colorado series.:
The Ducks Streak Ends at 9
The Ducks had some close games over the course of the 9 games winless streak, with a 3-2 loss against the Blues, a 3-2 OT loss to Vegas, and a 3-2 loss against the Sharks coming to the front of my mind. In each of these games, the Ducks had the better of the play at 5v5, but due to either poor goaltending or poor special teams play, they would come out as the loser.
The Ducks did not play a game like those three in their 5-4 win against the Avalanche, but one could say they deserved a bit of puck luck over this stretch after losing each of those three games. The Ducks certainly got that in a way in the form of Hunter Miska being in net for the Avalanche. This was without a doubt a feel-good moment for the players on the team and you could see it on their faces after Ryan Getzlaf potted the OT winner for the team. Hopefully, the team can build upon that moment and put together some better performances as a result.
Also, Troy Terry is very good and he showed that last night with his highlight-reel goal. That is all.
Dallas Eakins Overthinks His Lineup Yet Again
Going into Friday’s game, it was announced that Josh Manson would be available to the Ducks for the first time since essentially the first week of the season. The most logical solution for the Ducks would have been to scratch one of Ben Hutton or Jacob Larsson and then have Manson draw in next to Cam Fowler and put Hakanpaa with whichever one of Hutton or Larsson stayed in the lineup.
Instead, Dallas Eakins decided to go with 11 F and 7 D for both games in Colorado. This was a bad idea not only due to the fact that it would tax the forwards by either limiting the minutes of the 4th line to a minuscule amount or by creating a situation where someone was getting double-shifted with the 4th line each time they were out there. For a single game this strategy can work, but to utilize it in both games of a back-to-back scenario in high altitude is without a doubt puzzling.
To make matters worse, Max Jones had to leave Saturday’s game early on after taking a puck to the throat, leaving the Ducks with 10 forwards for the majority of the game. The team as a result looked absolutely gassed in the third period, even though they were able to get some goals against the run of play.
The Ducks should have lost both of these games, primarily due to this poor coaching decision by Eakins. He put his players in a position to fail by icing this lineup, which sadly is par for the course for the season.
I will end this takeaway with #PlaytheKids. In Saturday’s matchup, Eakins decided to scratch Trevor Zegras, after he essentially benched him during the first game of the series after Zegras made a turnover in the neutral zone instead of just chipping the puck in deep. I understand that a coach wants to hold his players accountable, but there is a fine line between accountability and negligence with young players.
Zegras is a skilled player that will eventually learn to make the safe play there or develop his game to deke around that player instead of losing the puck. Instead of punishing him for that mistake, Eakins should say we need that puck in deep but encourage him to keep trying things out there. The Ducks need that type of creativity more often as compared to the “safe play”. As Craig Button put it “If they want him to ‘be careful’ and ‘be aware’ of his defensive responsibilities, they will get a shrunken version of Trevor. He’s smart. He’s competitive and he’s damn good without the puck. I really believe it’s in the best interests of the Ducks to ‘set him free’ to play the game.” in Eric Stephens’ great article on Zegras’ first NHL game.
John Gibson Needs a Break
John Gibson has seen his GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) per Evolving-Hockey plummet over the course of this season. At one point earlier in the season, he led the league in the category with around a 7.0 GSAx, whereas as of today he has seen his number fall to -2.97 GSAx. To simply explain that, based upon the quantity and quality of chances Gibson has faced an average goalie would be expected to save nearly 3 more goals than Gibson has.
For someone that is considered an elite goalie, that is sub-par, especially when you consider that he was the best goalie in the league earlier this season. That leads to the obvious question, why has he fallen off, and to me the answer is relatively simple: he is being overworked.
Gibson has started 20 of the Ducks 25 games, which means he is on pace to play in 45 games this season or 65 games in a normal season. The league leaders in starts last year had 58 games, and I would argue that is even too much. In the modern-day NHL, it is ideal to have the starter play around 50 games max and the backup around 32 games in a normal season, which prorates to 34 games max for a starter.
Essentially that was a long-winded way of saying, Gibson is playing too much, and as a result, his numbers have taken a massive dive. Rest is really important in the NHL, especially for goalies and the Ducks would benefit from giving Gibson more rest.
Ryan Miller has not been fantastic this season, rocking a -2.6 GSAx, but what is the worst thing that would happen by playing him? It is not as if the Ducks were on a massive winning streak with Gibson, actually, it was the exact opposite of that.
Rickard Rakell is On Fire
Rickard Rakell had a fantastic series against the Avalanche, where he had a goal and 3 primary assists for 4 points along with 9 shots on goal, 14 shot attempts, 5 scoring chances, and 2 high danger chances over the two games. On the season he now is tied for the points lead on the Ducks with 16 points in 21 games. He obviously has a boatload of confidence right now, which is playing a part in a positive regression in his sh% (He is now shooing 4.9% instead of an abysmal 2% that he had a few weeks back), but do not let yourself be fooled into thinking that a switch has magically been turned on for Rakell.
Let’s compare his stats over these two games to his stats for the season per 60 minutes of ice time. Note these are in all situations per naturalstattrick:
Avalanche Series:
13.24 shots/60
0.63 ixG/60
20.6 iCF/60
7.36 iSCF/60
2.94 iHDCF/60
11.11 sh%
Season:
10.45 shots/60
1.06 ixG/60
19.36 iCF/60
11.1 iSCF/60
4.26 iHDCF/60
4.9 sh%
As you can see, his numbers over this past two games are about on par with his numbers throughout the season, the only difference is the puck went in at an 11% clip as compared to 4.9%, even though the quality and quantity of looks he was getting was the same. So next time you hear someone say that Rakell just has found the magic again or they try to claim that he looks so much different, politely correct them by letting them know that Rakell has been this good all year and they need to stop dragging his name through the mud.
Jamie Drysdale on the Taxi Squad
This did not make any headlines and is something you won’t find many people talking about, but Jamie Drysdale is currently on the Ducks taxi squad and was placed on the Taxi Squad on Thursday. As a result, Drysdale was not eligible to play for the Gulls when they played in back to back games on Friday and Saturday.
This decision is a puzzling one to me. On one hand, the Ducks could want Drysdale on the taxi squad so that he can practice and potentially travel with the NHL team, but on the other hand, Drysdale would have gotten more out of playing both games for the Gulls on the weekend than being on the taxi squad.
Coming into the season, I had hoped that the Ducks would use the taxi squad to callup Drysdale and let him practice with the Ducks on off days for the Gulls and then send him down to play in the Gulls games. I did not expect them to just let him sit on the taxi squad and miss games though.
It is a shortened season for both the NHL and AHL so any missed games for Drysdale are a missed opportunity at development for him, especially because he is not eligible to play in the AHL next season.