2020-21 Anaheim Ducks Season Preview
After 10 long months, the longest offseason for Ducks fans since the 2004-05 lockout, we will have hockey again.
Thursday, January 14th; the fateful day when the puck drops and the Anaheim Ducks begin their quest for the Stanley Cup.
Ok sorry, that’s enough hope for you, time to ruin it all.
The Ducks enter the shortened 56 game season coming off another lottery pick finish. It was a season cut short by a global pandemic, yet one that saw a myriad of disappointing performances and unfulfilled expectations.
Unfortunately, on the surface, this year doesn’t look much better. Lack of high-end talent, an aging and declining captain, and young players who have yet to fulfill their potential as they enter their prime years don’t inspire a lot of hope.
Ok, fine stop yelling at me I’ll give you a little hope again.
The good news is that there actually is a path to the playoffs for Anaheim. A realistic one. It relies on a lot of things breaking the right way, but it’s not out of the question.
The new NHL divisional alignment for the season splits teams up into geographic regions intended to minimize travel. As such, the Ducks will only be playing games against the new Western Division comprised of the LA Kings, San Jose Sharks, Vegas Golden Knights, Arizona Coyotes, Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild, and St. Louis Blues. The top four in the standings in this division will qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The top three spots are essentially locked up before the season even begins. Barring injury problems or shocking underperformances, Colorado, Vegas, and St. Louis should make it with relative ease. This is a top-heavy division, to say the least.
That leaves us with the fourth and final spot. Of the remaining teams, the Minnesota Wild has perhaps the best chance. However, they performed better than expected last year, and some have warned about a potential regression from the team.
The Ducks have some solid supporting pieces as well as a number of younger players who could potentially have breakout seasons to fuel a playoff chance.
Let’s look at each area of the Anaheim Ducks as they head into the new season and see where this production might, or might not, come from.
Forwards
This is the group that is hardest to project. There’s a former superstar who has begun to show signs of decline. There are a few reliable, yet not exactly premium vets. And then there are a smattering of 21-24 year olds who are still trying to find their way.
Ryan Getzlaf is still the unquestioned leader of this team. And while he may not be a 70-80 point threat anymore, he still is a positive contributor to the Ducks on the ice. A 42 point season in 69 games is a solid year for any NHL player.
And while his overall game has suffered, he still ranks in the 62nd percentile amongst NHLers in offense, according to Evolving Hockey.
For years, the mantra has been “as Ryan Getzlaf goes, so do the Ducks.” That might have worked during his prime, but if you’re banking on the captain to look like his old self headed into his age 35 season, you’re gonna have a bad time. Obviously, a turn-back-the-clock season would be absolutely massive for this team, but we need to start looking elsewhere for the kind of production the Ducks will need to get back to the postseason.
In the reliable veteran category, we have Rickard Rakell, Adam Henrique, and Jakob Silfverberg. At this point, everyone knows what they are. Rakell and Silfverberg showed good play driving numbers last year. They won’t light it up offensively, but they’ll give you a good amount of scoring chances and some responsible play in their own end.
Henrique had one of his best seasons last year, leading the Ducks in both points (43) and goals (26). At the moment he stands as the team’s best center. While Henrique is a good player, if he’s your best center, that might be a teensy, tiny, issue.
The young players looking to get significant playing time this season include Troy Terry, Max Jones, Max Comtois, Sam Steel, and Sonny Milano. Every one of these players has had high expectations at one point or another, yet none of them have consistently reached those artificial heights.
Of this group, Troy Terry has flashed the most promise. After a very rough start to the season, Terry became arguably the Ducks’ best forward for the final month and a half or so of the year. His playmaking ability, especially on the half-wall on the power play, stands out as his biggest strength. And while the actual production itself has yet to come, Terry established himself as one of the better defensive forwards in the NHL, ranking in the 80th percentile.
The rest of this group has not yet shown anything consistently as far as play driving or production goes. Sonny Milano got off to an auspicious start with a hat trick in his first game with Anaheim, but we only saw nine games of evidence before the season shut down. Milano showed flashes of brilliance with the Columbus Blue Jackets, but he wasn’t considered a key piece of that roster with him being shipped to Anaheim for Devin Shore at the trade deadline.
Max Comtois, Sam Steel, and Max Jones are probably going to have to take a significant step forward if they want to remain part of this team’s future. Comtois has a good sense of the net and getting shots off, but has struggled defensively. Jones is a big body with good skating ability who has had some impressive board battles, but the finishing quality Anaheim expected from him has yet to appear. And Steel just had an all-around disappointing year. His highlights were mostly him being carried by Rakell and Silfverberg on his wings, which isn’t ideal for the former WHL MVP. He’ll need to boost all parts of his game to push this team forward.
Finally, it’s everyone’s favorite meme dream team: the role players. I’m talking about Elite 1C Derek Grant, hat trick god Nic Deslauriers, grit-master Carter Rowney, defensive vet, and multi-millionaire David Backes, the mysterious Andrew Agozzino, and the anti-Nick Ritchie Danton Heinen.
The long-running question of “will they, won’t they” and with more breakups and reuniting than Ross and Rachel for Derek Grant and the Ducks came to an end after the 30-year-old signed a three year, $1.5 million AAV deal this off-season. Grant was a fixture on the Ducks’ special teams unit last season and surprised many by being one of the better penalty killers in the NHL. However, his biggest surprise (or was it expected, I mean he is elite) was his career-high 15 goals playing mostly on the fourth line and on special teams.
He rode an unsustainable 17% shooting binge, so as much as we want him to succeed and fuel memes, it’s not likely we’ll see that kind of performance again.
Deslauriers, Rowney, Backes, and Agozzino all figure to rotate alongside Grant between the taxi squad and the big club. I personally am higher than most on Backes, which you can read about here. As for Heinen, he is a plug and play anywhere kind of guy. He’s defensively responsible, doesn’t take penalties, and works hard. Be prepared to see him mostly in the bottom six, but don’t be surprised to see him anywhere else.
I’m not going to go too much into Trevor Zegras at this point. With his late arrival to camp coming off a historic World Junior Championship performance as the tournament MVP, the 19-year-old will likely get a few taxi squad practices in before making his NHL debut. I wouldn’t expect him to get more than six games before heading down to Irvine to play with the San Diego Gulls, but given his performance at the World Juniors...well we’ll cross that bridge if we come to it.
Defense
The defense has been one of the Ducks’ biggest weaknesses in recent years. And it’s been talked about ad nauseam.
However, this year could signal smoother sailing on the blue line. On paper, Anaheim has one of the league’s better top four units. Cam Fowler had a career year in 2019-20. He thrived in head coach Dallas Eakins’ system encouraging defenders to join the attack, putting together a performance many believed him capable of since his rookie year.
Hampus Lindholm had a down year by his standards. Injuries kept him out of 13 games last season and while he wasn’t bad by any stretch, his usual shutdown defending took a hit. I would not be surprised if both he and Josh Manson had bounce-back seasons to give some much-needed relief to John Gibson and Ryan Miller.
The big pickup of the offseason, Stanley Cup Champion Kevin Shattenkirk should give the Ducks a nice boost at both five on five and on the power play. Now a seasoned veteran, Shattenkirk brings very recent cup experience and a great regular 2019-20 regular season to a team in desperate need of wisdom.
The third pairing is where things get dicey. Jacob Larsson has not developed anywhere close to the level the Ducks have wanted from him. This very well might be his last chance to prove that he can play at the NHL level. Kodie Curran is one of the most surprising signings this year. He was the Swedish Hockey League’s 2019-20 MVP and defenseman of the year, garnering interest from several NHL clubs. He has taken one of the most unique paths to the NHL, which Felix Sicard detailed here. Curran figures to get a lot of time on the third pairing to see if his game translates to the NHL.
Jani Hakanpaa got a taste of the show last season, as did Josh Mahura. Both figure to be fighting for NHL time as well.
Finally, the curious case of Brendan Guhle continues. He was highly-regarded coming over in the Brandon Montour trade in 2019 but struggled in his time last season with the Ducks. There has been a noticeable lack of trust in the 23-year-old from both Dallas Eakins and Bob Murray, so he will presumably have a lot of work to do to stick with the big club this year.
Maybe all that competition for the third pairing brings out some surprising performances in these blueliners. One can only hope for their sake and for the team’s sake.
Like Zegras, I expect Jamie Drysdale to possibly get a few games eventually, especially with the OHL season in doubt. Expect Drysdale to get plenty of time with the Gulls until the OHL returns.
Goaltending
The Ducks’ biggest strength, goaltending, is going to be the single most important aspect of their season. It’s said that goaltending is the great equalizer, and no more true is that phrase than for the 2020-21 Anaheim Ducks.
Let’s face it, John Gibson did not have a good year. He posted a -9.92 goals saved above expected according to Evolving Hockey, compared to his previously otherworldly numbers of 26.9 GSAx in 2018-19 and 32.86 GSAx in 2017-18. If the Ducks want to nab that final playoff spot in the west, they’re going to need Gibson to play out of his mind again. That’s probably too much to ask of him, purely from a humanity standpoint.
Luckily the Ducks will be getting at least one more year out of Ryan Miller. The 40-year-old has been one of the league’s best backups since joining Anaheim. With this being possibly his final season, Miller should give the Ducks some peace of mind taking on games as the team tries to manage Gibson’s workload.
The good news is that this team is far from the worst in the NHL. They have enough interesting pieces who could still take a significant step forward, a solidified top-four defensive unit, and the best goaltender in the world with arguably the best backup.
The bad news is that this team hasn’t proven anything, and other than signing Kevin Shattenkirk, did not improve in any meaningful way over the offseason. The dawn of Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale is still probably at least one or two seasons away, so in the meantime, they will have to hope things work out better than expected.
My advice for the Anaheim Ducks faithful: don’t get your hopes up, but look for signs of progress. And if they make a run and land a playoff spot, well, who doesn’t like pleasant surprises?